Debunking SM Goh’s claims that Singapore will go the way of the dinosaurs without PRs and new citizens
November 10th, 2009 | 
Author: By Bhaskaran Kunju, Political Correspondent
On November 6 Senior Minister Mr Goh Chok Tong spoke at the Deepa Thirunal 2009 ceremony held at the Bradell Heights Community Club. In what was supposed to be an extended celebration of Deepavali, SM Goh discussed the topic of immigrants and social integration. It can be read here.
By now it would not be of any surprise to anyone that this topic gets reinvigorated at every event possible all the way till the General Elections next year.
There is of course an underlying reason for this, and it has been discussed before in my previous articles. But there are some points that SM Goh had raised that I think needs to be discussed.
Firstly, SM Goh drew comparisons of ‘successful’ social integration with two events he had attended. He recounted a Deepavali function with items put up by children of new Indian migrants who in his words “could easily pass off as Singaporeans” and his visit to Fujian, his ancestral village where he was welcomed as a Singaporean and not as a returning Chinese. For the latter, he noted that he himself was the son of a first generation Chinese migrant yet he was a Singaporean in every aspect.
The obvious flaw in his argument is that his father would almost certainly have been part of the first few waves of migrants, since SM Goh himself was born in 1941.
Being born before Singapore was even forged as an independent state, he would have been part of the process of nationalisation that would have instilled in its population the core identity and value of the country. It would have been quite a feat had he been immune to it.
To compare his path to becoming a Singaporean with that of the migrant children he had seen perform in the function is completely off the mark and takes lightly the difficulty and hardship the earlier generation of Singaporeans had to endure.
SM Goh then goes on to discuss the effect that PRs and migrants have had on Singaporeans and calls it an ‘emotive issue’. But he emphasises the stance of the Government by explaining his views on it. He said, “To me, whether we should have more immigrants and migrant workers or not boils down to whether they help us to sustain and enrich the quality of life of Singaporeans.”
Of course there is irony in his statement, since it is Singaporeans who seem to feel the opposite of having their quality of lives sustained and or enriched by immigrants.
With this however he recites three main reasons for the policy of bringing in large number of immigrants; low birth rates among Singaporeans, the need for migrant labour to sustain our standard of living and for enriching our society.
For the issue of low birth rates he states the following,
“For all our effort in encouraging marriage and procreation, our total fertility rate climbed only marginally from 1.26 in 2004 to 1.28 last year. This is still far short of the 2.1 needed to replace father and mother. In absolute terms, we need about 60,000 babies per year.
Last year, we had only 32,400 citizen babies! How do we make up for the shortfall?
Without PRs and new citizens, Singapore will go the way of the dinosaurs. If we do not take in any more new immigrants, our population will begin to shrink in 2020. That is only 11 years away! Let me give you another statistic. In the last 10 years, the number of people aged 65 and above has grown by about 100,000 while the number of children aged below 15 had shrunk by about 50,000. This is an unsustainable demographic structure”
The statistics are of course worrying. With an ageing population that is far short of it’s natural replacement rate the impact it would have on the labour pool as well as on society could very well be devastating. But there are inherent flaws in this ideology of supplanting the problem with immigrants.
Firstly there is a gross assumption here that somehow, PRs and new citizens would repopulate our country with more newborns and hence meet our shortfall for the natural replacement rate.
Existing Singaporeans aren’t genetically deficient in reproducing. The reasons for a shortfall in birth rates are due to socio-economic reasons such as high cost of living, the same set of reasons that new PRs and new citizens will have to face.
Unless we Singaporeans are indeed somehow genetically predisposed to not having children, then the idea that PRs and new citizens will help in reaching our natural replacement rate is one that appears to be a quick fix with little thought put into it.
SM Goh states how government policies of encouraging Singaporean to have more children have ‘failed’. But shifts in social attitudes, especially ones that have been entrenched for decades, take time and should not be measured in just a few short years. The fault of course lies in the administration for not having the foresight to diagnose the problem much earlier.
Additionally is there a policy in place to prioritise giving PR or citizenship status to families with more than one child? It would not seem so and in this instance wouldn’t more immigrants merely contribute to the problem of an ageing population? It isn’t population replacement anymore, it’s population displacement.
Actually it inadvertently could be replacement, with Singaporeans choosing greener pastures.
For the argument of immigrants to top up our labour pool SM Goh had the following to say,
“Without them, my guess is that our growth rate would be easily 1 to 2 percentage points lower. Well, you may say, let us do without this extra boost of 1 to 2 percentage points from foreigners in future and be satisfied with our present quality of life. But it is not that simple.
Without the foreign workforce, our flats and MRT will not be built, our buses will come to a standstill, our healthcare services will degrade, and many investors, including Singaporean ones, will uproot and go where talent is abundant. Instead of sacrificing just 1-2 percentage points of growth, our economy will shrink, and our quality of life decline.”
Surprisingly, there appears to be a lack of sync with public sentiments and government perceptions. Foreign workers building MRT and flats is not a new phenomenon and has been around for decades.
In fact most of the earlier MRT underground lines were built by Irish tunnelers. Factually, it would even be wrong to lump this group of migrant workers in when most of them are in fact merely transient workers as explained by PM Lee Hsien Loong in a speech at NTU not too long ago.
The real issue over immigrant workers lies in the added competition to Singaporeans. Competition is good, and it ensures that each individual functions to his best for survival. But the question is how much competition is too much? Going by anecdotal evidences it would seem we might have touched the threshold.
However I feel the real issue lies in how or why immigrant workers are being given PR or citizenship statuses. How, because once again we are giving away citizenship and PR statuses much too easily without the slightest concern of integration or their interest in actually settling down in Singapore.
Why issue PR or citizenship when a work permit is sufficient for those who have no interest in settling down in Singapore? This would bring to the why part.
I was watching a debate a few months ago on the issue of foreigners and one of the reasons given for issuing PRs or citizenships to foreign workers was as an added bait to entice more talents to work in Singapore.
I personally think it’s about time our government stopped acting like an insecure teenage girl who feels she needs to put out to get a date.
The opportunity to pursue a career plus the well promoted social stability and security of our nation should be more than sufficient for any individual to choose to work here. If it isn’t enough, then perhaps we shouldn’t be so desperate as we simply do no fit their criteria.
I think most moderates, including myself would agree that the issue of immigrants itself is not the problem but rather the extent of it and the incredible ease of attaining PR or citizenship.
Of course we do need migrant workers and talent to enrich our society, economy and way of life. But when there are more than 100 000 new migrants each year then there are certainly a lot of questions to answer for.
In 2008, 20500 new citizens, an increase of 18 percent from the year before, were welcomed. Additionally the number of PRs rose from 63,600 in 2007 to more than 79,000 in 2008. These are staggering figures that are rising by the year, though PM Lee assured there would be a decline in coming years given the uncertain state of the economy.
SM Goh concedes that there are worries and anxieties that need to be engaged and discussed given the sensitivity surrounding the issue of immigrants. But he also states, “The government must take all views into account, and then persuade and win over Singaporeans.” In other words, opinions are futile.
About the Author:
Bhaskaran Kunju is a Political Science and Communications and New Media undergraduate at the National University of Singapore. He is a regular contributor to the Straits Times Forum and TODAY Voices. He also writes for NLB and FAS and hopes to be a full-time journalist upon graduation.
Posted in 
A non-transparent autocratic Government wants us to trust their policy platform?
How can we trust hidden agendas?
Four words sum it all up – I DON’T BELIEVE YOU!!!
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pap will go the way of the dinosaurs at the next GE
TIME FOR CHANGE, VOTE OPPOSITION
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The usual pre-election tactic of MIW.
Just before election, they will promise this and that….and say nice things and bug babies and old folks. After election, they woudl have forgotten what they had promised….and go back to their old arrogant (get out of my elite face) ways!!!
Teh question is: Will Sinkes be fooled again at the ballot box??
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what makes him say that when the thingie has not happened?
What substantiates his claims?
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They got is wrong 30 years ago and now consulting some clairvoyant to believe that this time they are getting it right.?
It costs only $2 to see a clairvoyant on the side street of Singapore and most clairvoyants are struggling a bit better than card board collectors for a living.
When troubles overwhelm this country in 3 years’ time or shorter, the clairvoyant might be busy again – more effervescent that the pawnshop business for pverty-stricken Singaporeans.
Dr. Mahathir is brighter, some medicine is more dangerous harmful than the cure it pretends to be.
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Well, I think the birth rate is so important to singapore’s future. Perhaps we should look at minimum wage for citizens, providing long term maternity leave for mum, give good welfare to the elders. All these will mean that singaporeans will have more time to make babies, mum will be able to take care of babies without worrying for income, and the granddad and grandmum can spend time helping to raise their grandchildren and not selling tissue or cleaning toilet.
I think this is the best post so far
Oh I am such a genius
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my fellow singaporeans, if you love singapore then at the next GE you will vote for Workers’ Party, Reform Party, SDA and SDP
anything but PAP
TIME FOR CHANGE, VOTE FOR CHANGE, VOTE OPPOSITION
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Very intersting article. Even if Singaporeans start having babies now due to policy changes then they enter the workforce only 20years later by which time Singapore economy is made up of older folks and compaines no longer willing to inveset here.
If seems one way or the other things dont look great for Singapore in future.
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I think birthrate is so important to Singapore’s future. I believe that we can do better than that. First, implement a minimum wage law for citizen so that every breadwinner can bring a decent amount home to feed the babies. Second, give longer paid maternity leave for mum (like sweden or norway) so that they can take good of their children and don’t penalise them when they return to work. Finally, provide good welfare for the elderly so the granddad and grandmum can help take care of all the grandchildren and impart their wisdom instead of selling tissues or cleaning toilets.
I think through the above, more the conditions for more citizen babies will become better resulting in more time to make babies, more money to feed babies, and better qaulity care for babies (instead of relying on uninterested maids and nannies).
I think this will definitely work.
Oh I think I am a genius!
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as if people didn’t want to have children?
The problem is we are not certain about the future.
Then PAP needs to pay singaporeans in general more to get us to procreate.
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young people need more space to make babies lah. its so crowded now. where are you going to do your business? would you like to do your business while your parents are sleeping next door?
geez.
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THE BOTTOM LINE:
SM Goh’s bottom line is so clear, as clear as the white blue sky above – crystal clear. What he actually intended to say was: “You can give us your views but in the end the Government will WIN ….. er … you over. Is that clear!”
So, Singaporeans are actually totally hapless, totally at the mercy of the Elitist PAP’s Government. What can we do next?
Continue to resign to our fate or do something concrete for the sake of ourselves for once?
I don’t know what the majority of Singaporeans will do but I know what I am going to do. Simple – foreigners come in, I go out. As simple as that.
I will go to Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand, and may consider to join their Armed Forces if the need arises.
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wat? on Tue, 10th Nov 2009 7:28 pm
….”young people need more space to make babies lah. its so crowded now. where are you going to do your business?…”
GOOD POINT.
But the Government might suggest this – We put up some curtains in Hong Lim Park and switch off the surveillance cameras while all the actions are “HOT” on.
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time for a change. The FT policy has already proven to be causing lot of hardships to the native Singaporeans.
Why can’t the PAP just opended their ear and heart to listen?
Do they always think they are right and can see long term. kenye said ‘over a long run, we are all dead’.
Truly applicable.
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“I personally think it’s about time our government stopped acting like an insecure teenage girl who feels she needs to put out to get a date.”
I LOLLL !!
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“Without PRs and new citizens, Singapore will go the way of the dinosaurs.”
Singaporeans will go the way of dinosaurs (in Singapore, no less) WITH PRs and new citizens.
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Don’t even speak about the average FTs who robbed our average
singaporean workers of their livelihood.
Let’s talk about he expensive CEOs one local bank cleverly hired and look,they got their pay,their big fat bonuses and
handsome last-a-lifetime termination packages just by doing common singaporeans,,,what’s that high sounding product..
oh,yes,LEHMAN MINI-”BOMBs”…er,i mean “mini-bonds”,yes mini
bonds.They were so “MINI”,our folks here could not read the small print and was literally bombed!!!
So what “foreign” talnets are they boasting about whenwehave so many “UN”-foreign local talnets to choose from.
First things first like my old teachers so wisely taught us,put your own house in order before trying to “kay-poh”!!!
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Is immigration a new phenomenon in the last few years? Or is it been around for decades?
The migration influx quietly became a torrent in last few years. So it did not just happened overnight, right?
Now let us look at the objective truth of claims in the argument that Singapore will go the way of the dinosaurs without PRs and new citizens.
We had one Economic Restructuring Committee recommendation in 2003. IT HAS NO ASSUMPTION OF NEED FOR MASSIVE TORRENTIAL INFLUX OF MIGRATION to sustain the policy recommendation subsequently implemented.
But lots of PRs have came in in that time which escalated into a waterfall torrent exceeding 100,000 per annum in recently years. That must, by definition, proved that most of the over 500,000 PRs came in the last 8 years – rights?
DID THIS MASSIVE TORRENT OF MIGRATION SOLVE OUR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF COMPETITIVENESS AND RELEVANCE TO GLOBAL ECONOMY in the last 8 years?
The answer is EMPHATICALLY “NO” in substance and in fact. Now you might want to challenge me – where is the proof in substance of this strong assertion? The answer is robustly rebutted by the simple truth that WE ARE NOW AWAITING NEW RADICAL CHANGE IN ECONOMIC DIRECTION now being debated by a 26-member Economic Restructuring Committee.
This time POPULATION shift is a major underlying assumption. So what does this mean EVIDENCE OF FACT? It is definitive evidence of truth that 8 years of bringing in over 500,000 PRs FAILED TO RESOLVE CRITICAL DIMENSIONS OF OUR FUTURE ECONOMIC SURVIVAL.
POPULATION POLICY AS A PILLAR OF OUR ECONOMIC FOUNDATION IS A PROVEN FAILED EXPERIMENT. If it is NOT a monumental policy failure, WHY DO WE NEED SUCH MASSIVE RESTRUCTURING AGAIN SO SOON AFTER THE RESTRUCTURING OF OUR ECONOMY in 2003 was intended for the long -term??
So what is the Government’s intent. ADD MORE AND A LOT MORE to see if it works the next time round – risks and contingency consequence we shall IGNORE TOTALLY. Yet we all know that the undeclared flooding of migration without public consultation ADDS A LOT OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DISRUPTION TO OUR SOCIETY – the Government just treated us like ignorant children – whacked you harder if you complained.
But what is the gain for our future besides illusory of success till now? I can’t see any. Why?
It is like frying your mee hoon noodle (without soaking in water first), find it does not get soft from frying in fats, so how to solve this problem?
VERY SIMPLE. The Government’s solutin is ADD MORE MEEHOON (read more PRs). MORE FRYING OIL (read new citizen), CHUCK IN SOME EGGS (read goodies election baits) AND PUT THE LID TO COVER THE WOG ( read put out more propaganda coverage) AND MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL ADD THE FIRE TO THE COOKING OIL BY TURNING UP THE FLAME ( read faster migration after election).
Now go and watch your favourite news on television channel (pretend nothing is wrong) on the virtues of Singapore will be a dinosaurs without PRs and new citizen. If the kitchen smells of burnt carbon and smokey from the wogs, YOU HAVE SOLVED YOUR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS BY POPULATION IMPLOSION ( read honest mistake).
Is this answer true or false just like your television newcaster just asserted?
My answer to that question is false. Why?
With burnt cooking, I got a no dinner and a damaged wog beyond repair. Singapore’s population policy is exactly like that – what failed, just add more failed formulae to it and see if it works.
If not, we will discover the outcome later – a wasteland of destruction and overpopulation, overwhelmed infrastructure pressure from transport to hospital to banking, desperate and suicidal families, crime infestation and prostitutions, broken families, unemployment of NO TURNING BACK POSSIBILITY.
POPULATION ONCE OVERFLOODED HAS NO POSSIBILITY OF TURNING BACK EXCEPT THROUGH THE GAS CHAMBERS.
Who is volunteeing to be in the front of this queue?
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@substance over cosmetic
very good comment and well written.
do write more often.
cheerio!
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Some comments on SM speech..
6. and how Singaporeans will always have better benefits than PRs and foreigners.
What benefit do Singaporeans have when their jobs are taken away? How will SM feel if his job is taken away by a foreigner?
7. To me, whether we should have more immigrants and migrant workers or not boils down to whether they help us to sustain and enrich the quality of life of Singaporeans.
With the added direct competition to Singaporeans and lack of space that did not help in the quality of life in Singapore.
8. But we have tried with baby bonus, maternity benefits, tax incentives, and child care support.
High cost of living -> need to work more -> no time for family -> no children.
Need to reduce the overall cost of living. Too high in Singapore!
17. Finally, let me say that tonight’s gathering is an example of a truly Singaporean event. It is Deepavali but we are celebrating it in a multi-racial way, with Indian, Malay and Chinese performances.
Dear SM, not every Singaporean is celebrating Deepavali.
In fact I find all these celebrations very wayang.. Seen so many of them in Community clubs and schools. Just a show for MIW. Honestly do you watch the performance of other racial groups?? Singaporeans do not celebrate Deepavali with Indian, Malay and Chinese performances.
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S’poreans don’t waste yr breadth.
Don’t feel bad abt migrating. Don’t waste emotional baggage on “S’pore is my home, I must stay”.
And it’s not juz OZ, NZ, Canada, USA, UK. Hey China’s not bad and so is India. M’sia’s a bit dicey as govmin can’t make up their minds to kiss our ass or cut our heads.
Remember you got hard assets to sell thanks to yr hard work, and dare I say it to gd PAP govmin.
And family is juz a call away and video conferencing is round the corner.
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Dear Singaporeans it is time for a change in LEADERSHIPS! This party is the worst party who only concern is to TAX more money from all the Siongaporeans espcially the poor family! Everythings is going higher and higher except our salary.We had a First world leaders who earn the highest pay in the world at the expense of the general populations. With more PR and immigrants coming the majority of the Singporeans will suffer ,more singaporean is going to lost their job to this immigrants who are young and willing to accept lower salary. We must remember for these migrants they do not have any choice beacause the country they come from cannot provide any jobs . If they had a better choice I do not think they will come to Singapore. I had survey with many of these foreign workers most of them are very unhappy but no choice. I felt very sorry for them. Many are cheated by their agents.
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How is it that the among the three different races there is quite a difference in the average number of children per couple and also in the rate of marriage?
Since all face the same environment is it just a question of priorities?
Is immigration a way to ensure the population ratios remain the same?
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fair and square on Tue, 10th Nov 2009 10:59 pm
Thanks. I read a lot of your interesting posts too! You are a compassionate community-caring man.
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Nah, SG going the way of the dinosaur is just MIW-speak for get more people so we can get more tax – and support our millionaire ministers.
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They are leaving singapore with all the money they have made, and his daughter are waiting for him there. WHEN singaporean need to change a new government, those old monkey still do not want to let go. SINGAPOREAN need to change, let vote for new government. ALL the old old monkey better leave the political to let the new generation singaporean to form a new government. THERE is no HOPE if the OLD OLD monkey sitting down there,,,,,,,,,
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Can for better government, and there would any dinosaur for him to talk.
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A well written to counter Sm goh dinosaur theory.
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The PAP is not interested in increasing the birth rates with new citizens — it is only interested in the new citizens!
Why? Because new citizens are grateful to them and will vote for PAP in the next GE. So PAP will win the next GE with hands down.
By the time these new citizens feel cheated, like us, PAP will have got some new batches. They will always stay in power.
Therefore, there should be a policy to limit the numbers.
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Dear Singaporean! Yes it time must have a change.PAP has cause lot of damages and they are arrogant to admin mistake,
In the 70’s the PAP Policy “STOP AT TWO” has slaughter our past generation 1/2 million of the “Innocent & Defencless” foetus (our past Brother & Sister)trying to extinct we Singpaorean.(U can see it today of our population)Now with introuduce of the “New Water” to drink. Young & Old Singaporean get tired easily. legs & Hand get numb, Brain can’t work properly, Always vote wronly for PAP.We’re the last batch of Singaporean going to get extinct very soon. if we’re not going to do something in this General Election. New batch of immigrant will over take our place, leaving our future Generation to be the last Mohican. LKY hate Singpaorean deeply.
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Are you convinced by SM Goh’s speech “New immigrants help sustain and enrich Singaporean way of life” and why?
Check out what Singaporeans are saying….
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AvZ1WGzGD9n055ydaOuiY3QjzKIX;_ylv=3?qid=20091108222531AAf7tUA
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Have anyone do a deep scanning into the life the ministers, or MP, are they really quality for the post they are offer, or money they are offer to sit in the chair.
SINGAPOREAN are being totally taken over by the foreigners, and still many of them are no choice and just to accept them.
BUT singaporean must do themselves a final decision to elect
them and put it on hold. FOR the young generation at stake, think and think twice before U elect them as MP. COULD it be now to U turn and put people into power and not let the PAP monopoly the whole outcome. SINGAPORE future are in the people hand and we are prepare for a better government, and not this shit from the OLD OLD ministers anymore…….
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What a rubbish article. This article asserts that new citizens and PR are being brought in to increase our TFR. That’s ridiculous. They are being brought in to increase the working population. They are not being brought in to have babies. It is this author that is making the “gross assumptions”.
“I was watching a debate a few months ago on the issue of foreigners and one of the reasons given for issuing PRs or citizenships to foreign workers was as an added bait to entice more talents to work in Singapore.” Instead of addressing the official reasons for bringing in PRs or new citizens, the author chooses to address a suspect assertion, and then makes a sexist remark. Outstanding.
I hope that this author’s sloppy thinking standard is not representative of his fine university. But if it were, then I would really be worried for Singapore’s future.
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indexer on Fri, 13th Nov 2009 7:09 am
………”That’s ridiculous. They are being brought in to increase the working population….”
This a a PIG of a lies sold as a panda gift.
Why don’t the Government give PEP instead of PRs that is evaluated no more respectable than toilet paper grade? PEP achieve the same goal of increasing working ( hopefully not working girls in Geylang and all over the island) population.
Giving PR has other undisclosed political intent. So cut out this crap of yours. It is very wasteful to give so much benefits to entice foreigners to increase working population. PEP would be most advantages for Singapore.
So, indexer, less farting of yours in this blogg would be appreciated.
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Hi Indexer,
Perhaps you could explain exactly how that remark is sexist?
The debate in question was one hosted by CNA. The reason I stated (and you’ve quoted me for) was one that was raised in the program to explain why we are providing PR and Citizenship status to foreign workers instead of just a Work Permit.
Also the reasons I’ve stated for increasing immigrants aren’t my assumptions. Those are the reason that have been given time and again by numerous officials and I’ve quoted some before in the past. If you read the transcript of SM Goh’s speech (which I’ve provided the link for at the top) you’d realise he says the same thing too.
regards
Bhaskaran
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