Debunking the three fallacies inherent in SM Goh’s argument that good leadership is linked to economic performance
January 18th, 2010 | 
Author: OPINION
In a recent speech to youth leaders from a leadership programme in his Marine Parade GRC, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong said there is a relationship between a country’s leadership and how its economy performs.
“If you track the performance of a country in the last 30 years, you will come to the conclusion that there is a co-relationship between the leadership of a country and economic performance of the country…..The better the leadership, the better the government, more enlightened, more visionary. The more honest the government, the better the economic performance.” he added.
Perhaps SM Goh is referring to the performance of his political party – the PAP which has governed Singapore uninterrupted for the past fifty years since 1959.
Inherent in his arguments are three fallacies:
1. Economic performance is dependent solely on the quality of a country’s leadership.
2. The ultimate aim of a nation is to perform well economically.
3. The more honest the government, the better the economic performance.
While there is a co-relation between the quality of a country’s leadership and economic performance, it is more important to have a political system which not only sustain the economy over time, but distribute the fruits of the nation’s growth equally and fairly to all its people to enjoy.
Good leaders are found in all forms of political systems ranging from democracies, totalitarian states, dictatorships and feudal dynasties, but only good systems will be able to nurture good leaders and toss out bad ones from time to time.
The Nazi regime which ruled Germany during the Third Reich can be considered an excellent leadership by SM Goh’s definition for Germany’s economy grew the fastest between the years 1933 – 1938, propelling it to become an economic powerhouse from the ruins of World War I in less than a decade, but it was a fascist totalitarian state which brooked no dissent and did not have any mechanism in place to remove megalomaniac leaders like Hitler who soon led Germany into disaster.
Similarly, there were plenty of good leaders during 5000 years of China’s history. Emperors Kangxi, Yongzheng and Qianlong were widely considered as the most capable emperors of the Qing dynasty and indeed, China’s economy grew by leaps and bound during their combined 120-year reign. However, the feudal system of the Qing government placed too much power and responsibility in the hands of a few and the empire soon went into decline when a series of weak emperors assumed the throne after Qianlong.
Like many other PAP leaders, SM Goh’s continued emphasis on economic performance as measured by GDP growth figures is both inappropriate and inaccurate.
Singapore’s ministers are so obsessed with GDP growth that a significant proportion of their multi-million annual wages are pegged to it which is hardly heard of in the developed world.
In Singapore’s National Pledge which is recited by every Singapore student since 7 years of age, we pledge “to build a democratic society based on justice and equality so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our people.” Nowhere was economic performance or GDP growth mentioned.
GDP is a simply a measurement of the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s economic borders during a period of time.
It can be artificially increased like what the PAP is doing now, by mass importing cheap foreign labor from other countries to keep business costs down and to increase demand for goods and services, but for long can this sustain us?
Furthermore, the influx of foreign workers have depressed the wages of ordinary Singaporeans and only the employers benefit in the end, but not the common man in the streets.
The gains made by the nation’s stellar economic performance over the past decade are not distributed equally to all citizens as demonstrated by our widening income-gap between the rich and the poor, measured by the Gini coefficient, the highest among the thirty most developed countries in the world and ranked alongside that of third world countries like Kenya, Russia and Burundi.
The interpretation and use of GDP as a proxy of social welfare has received much criticism, which has come from some of the most well-known economists, including Nobel laureates (e.g. Simon Kuznets, Daniel Kahneman, Robert Solow, Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Muhammad Yunus).
It is severely limited as an indicator for the social welfare of a nation’s people as it does not include a number of factors that determine the well-being of people, such as the value of non-market goods and services (e.g. natural resources), informal and unpaid activities and leisure.
Besides, GDP emphasises average income and in fact puts unequal emphasis on the expenditures of the wealthy rather than on similar income development of the poor.
Though Singapore has a developed economy as defined by GDP per capita, Singaporeans are not living a life befitting of their status as citizens of a first world nation.
The worldwide study conducted and released by UBS last year, titled “Price and Earnings 2009″ has some unflattering results for Singapore. (read report here)
Singapore has a GDP (PPP) per capita higher than Switzerland, but our wages are way below the Swiss. Zurich and Geneva have wage indices (gross) of 119.8 and 107.5 respectively. In contrast, Singapore has a wage index of only 31.3, comparable with Moscow (30.9), Tallinn (28.7) and Johannesburg (26.7).
Singaporeans also have low domestic purchasing power compared to other developed countries with a purchasing power of only 39.9, comparable to Kuala Lumpur (39.5), Warsaw (34.0) and Bogota (33.7).
The latest release by Ireland-based magazine “International Living” ranked Singapore as the 70th most liveable place in the world below the likes of Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. Though Singapore scores highly in areas of healthcare, infrastructure and safety, it performs miserably in non-economic indicators like environment and freedom. (read report here)
Lastly, a honest government will not necessarily lead directly to better economic performance if its leaders lack ability, foresight and vision.
At the end of the day, it is the people who determine the overall economic performance of the nation and not the government which only plays a supervisory role to facilitate economic development and progress.
Though it is critical to have a honest government in place to lead the nation, it is more important to have a nation of “lions” and not “sheeps” to take charge of its collective destiny.
Take for example the United States which has seen a fair share of dishonest, incompetent and corrupted Presidents and lawmakers, but the nation is able to survive and prosper despite frequent changes of government because the Americans are a nation of “lions” and they can always find willing, capable and honest people to lead them.
Unfortunately, Singapore has turned into a nation of “sheeps” under fifty years of uninterrupted PAP rule which has seen its “lions” being incarcerated for long periods of time, exiled to other countries and bankrupted to live a life of poverty.
SM Goh must understand that Singapore is larger than the PAP which is merely a political party elected by the people to lead the nation.
In order for Singapore to continue growing and developing, we need to have a nation of “lions” led by themselves instead of a flock of hapless sheep following a frail, aging and blind lion which may drop dead anytime.
Posted in Opinion
LOL… a flock of hapless sheep following a frail, aging and blind lion which may drop dead anytime. We all know what the sentence meant.
Finally, we know what is the ruling party’s real objective. Decades of indoctrination is to turn us Singaporeans into sheep so that they can enslave us and enrich themselves.
Why are we paying them millions dollars salaries to turn us into sheep.
Only Singapore has good leadership and good economic performance in the last 30y?
GCT didn’t said GIC and Temasek lost billions in last 3 years is also due of our good leadership.
He didn’t compare our losses to other leaderships performance in China, Japan and Hongkong who performed much better economically.
Dear Mr. Goh Chok Tong
You are not doubt pulling the wool over our eyes again.
Let me remind you of this quote: “The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government.” Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799), Governor of Virginia
In graphic terms, what the famous American patriot was in effect saying is that the law is what political scientists call the cage that prevents the lion of power from mauling the innocent lambs, the black sheep, the hard-working ox and the cunning foxes that are found among the people.
The PAP has amended the constitution that the lion of power has mauled the innocent lambs etc.
The PAP in Owellian term is saying “two legs better” like the pigs.
The next lion …supposedly taken over is weak and goofy. And likes to hum alot.
This current lion and his “no regret” lioness will bring the down fall to all sheeps.
Where is my Swiss standard of living ? Is it also an aspiration which is impossible to achieve just like the singapore national pledge ?
assuming GCT got his data correct, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation. economic performance is dependent on a mixture of factors which i have elaborated in a past comment under “where’s my country going”
Interesting article.
I think when SM Goh referred to the saying “an army of sheep led by a lion is stronger than an army of lions led by a sheep”, he is impressing on his target audience the importance of the leadership to an organization.
From a systems perspective, there is some truth in his view; a robust system need not be constructed from perfectly reliable components, as long as the organization of the system has the feedback control mechanisms that compensates for the noisy performance of its constituents.
To believe that a system can only perform like a “lion” if all its parts behave like “lions” is to display a lack of systems-level thinking – the fallacy of composition.
Even real lions are not made up of tiny “lions”, at the cellular level, each cell is not inherently more aggressive than the cells of any other mammal. It is the organization and function of the cells as a system that differentiates a lion from a sheep.
However, while the performance of a system is emergent from its components, it is not divorced from its components.
SM Goh may have exaggerated the importance of the leadership to a country, while not mentioning the preconditions, internal factors and environmental factors that are also important to the economic performance of a country.
Conversely, the statement in this article: “At the end of the day, it is the people who determine the overall economic performance of the nation and not the government which only plays a supervisory role to facilitate economic development and progress” exaggerates the importance of component-level internal factors while not mentioning the preconditions, environment factors and organizational factors.
Despite the differences, there is some common ground in both statements – a lack of appreciation for the actual complexity of component interaction in a system.
SM Goh is not the first prominent person to refer to the leadership and the rank and file as if they were two distinct species of animals; years ago Philip Yeo also talked about “whales” and “guppies”.
These terms convey a sense of detachment between these two groups of people, and promote a view that the performance of a leadership class is somehow divorced from the situation of the rank and file.
In reality, if a large number of citizens are suffering due to their policies, the leadership class will find it very difficult to convince the locals and the international community that their performance is “good”.
In addition, leaders are also people – the “lions” and “sheep” are really the same species of animal. Thus, leaders can also be followers, of other people, of trends and of ideologies.
They are not magically exempt from blind faith in political fashions of their time which may have become damaging to the health of the nation, and even to their own interests.
As eloquently stated in this article: “Good leaders are found in all forms of political systems ranging from democracies, totalitarian states, dictatorships and feudal dynasties, but only good systems will be able to nurture good leaders and toss out bad ones from time to time.”
What is a good leader?
Is it a person who sets up a system that perpetuates his own power at any cost?
Is it a person who personally decides how to define merit but tries to convince others that the process is fair and objective?
Is it a person who assembles a group of yes-men to portray an image of diversity?
Is it a person who has ruled for decades but still cannot learn to let go?
Or is it a person who learns to exercise restraint because he has the imagination to realize that the winds of change never stop blowing and he too, may one day become a member of the rank and file, subject to the power of yet another group of “visionary” leaders… who are learning from his behaviour right now!
These assholes are confusing on what is leadership and Leedership. To lead is to do the right thing, and To LEEd is to do thing right by following Old Fart’s order blindly. They don’t even know that they are practicing LEEdership rather Leadership, and yet has the audacity to sprout their nonsense and rubbish blatantly day by day as election coming near.
These buggers give a bad name to leadership. What can kangaroo knows about Leadership ?
Dear SM GOH,
You told us you were once poor but it seems that you have well forgotten where you came from?
Many singaporean families have built their homes and this country with the OLD Guards who were the true leaders of this one resource nation that led this nation to prosperity.
Not only have the NEW leaders rewarded themselves unfairly by reaping what the old guards have sown,the new guards have actually brought about mcuh hardship to newer generations of singaporeans by their myopic policies.
GDP is but one measure of economic well-being but it is frauded with many limitations and I am sure being a ‘TALENTED’
Fullbright Scholar who studied Economics,you know better than most commoners and even most ministers including the PM.
You should also be inclined to agree that without proper INCOME level,an economy cannot advance as you would understand that economic growth hinges on income and spending besides savings for investment purposes.
So,with so many citizens out of jobs-and probably ore to come-how would the economy grow over the LONG RUN especially if these mercenary FTs make their exodus,which,imho,is a very likely scenario.
Let’s create jobs,decent jobs,for the citizens before you try to justify economic well-being by meaningless statistics.
Franlky , time have come for a change . No doubt and not an option . The MIW knows its coming . Its their last resort to cheat us .
Dear SM Goh,
Appreciate if you can stand in a single ward constituency in the next GE rather than with Marine Pde GRC and prove to Singaporeans that what you believe is agreeable and acceptable to the people.
Please give it due consideration. Thank you and best regards.
Bird Talk
“Good leader is linked to economic performance”
but, it is NOT proven that high paying leader is linked to a good one… U DO NOT HAVE TO PAY A LEADER THAT AMOUNT TO GET A GOOD ONE! Look @ USA, Canada, EU, KOR, JAP, CN etc etc etc etc… 400k vs $3mil…
How come these countries can function and grows (esp CN)? If you’re concerned abt the GDP and economy, then I’m satisfied with the performance. However it seem that u pegged ur pay with economic performance as well… u made this country run like a big organization and made us ’sheeps’ who work for u (for GDP). When u failed, u dun do what big organizations do… step down or sacked. When singapore have surpluses, how much u give to us? few hundreds? (and meanwhile raise the GST…) Politicians shouldn’t serve the country because of money. They serve the country because of the country and the people. That’s what people called 伟大! but are you?
How to believe in your leadership like that when citizens, who are the MAIN CORE OF THE COUNTRY, are treated like ‘milking’ sheeps? A country like singapore cannot survive without citizens and citizens deserve a share in the country’s development success and not only the govt (give up your million dollar pay pls…and many others can get helped…). U dun need to raise GST to help the poor…. u only need to give up your high pay for a reasonable one and u can help the poor. we, poor singaporeans, will be grateful and vote for u every year…
“an army of sheep led by a lion is stronger than an army of lions led by a sheep”,
LOL, what a joke of the year! “送羊入虎口” Because this year is tiger year! Beware! exercise your vote WISELY!
We have a strong feeling that a freak election in coming . The MIW knows it and worse till , time is not on their side . With the Billions lost by Temasek and GIC & stupid FT policies , their time is up . They know it very well .
“Similarly, there were plenty of good leaders during 5000 years of China’s history. Emperors Kangxi, Yongzheng and Qianlong were widely considered as the most capable emperors of the Qing dynasty and indeed, China’s economy grew by leaps and bound during their combined 120-year reign. However, the feudal system of the Qing government placed too much power and responsibility in the hands of a few and the empire soon went into decline when a series of weak emperors assumed the throne after Qianlong”
Singapore tommorrow?
Though Lion/ Sheeps analogy emphasize on importance of good leader; no less importance should be on part of team members that are crucial for team success
With character (like Lion), good minister will never abandon individual citizen, and have ability to strengthen society to achieve common goal together (for dynamics and competitiveness)
With enthusiasm, even if relatively small (like Sheep), citizens will have opportunities to fully utilize individual abilities to build a better Singapore (both socially and economically)
To the PAP, Singapore is a gold mine to be exploited. The people are dispensable pieces of cannon fodder to be used and discarded. Do not for one moment think that they have the well being and welfare of Singaporeans at heart. Behind closed doors they are laughing at the naivety and simple mindedness of Singaporeans. This is utter madness. This call by SM argues for another blank cheque to be given to the PAP so that they can exploit us for another four to five years. At $3 million dollars a year that is another $12 million to $15 million that they will set aside for their descendants. Ordinary Singaporeans can look forward to declining incomes and lower standards of living. By the time of the next election following this one, the population of Singapore will be 6 million of which half will be foreigners. Within two elections, they would have accumulated at least $40 million to $50 million as a result of the increases that they will give themselves. This is utter lunacy. The ultimate insult to injury is WKS’s comments that “what keeps him awake at night is the complacency of Singaporeans!” You mean he still insists that MS walking out of the Whitley Detention Center is still the fault of Singaporeans! They haven’t learned a darn thing. What is keeping him and all the PAP awake at night is what are they going to do with the millions that they have and how are they going to keep perpetuating the system so that the income stream continues uninterrupted.
I tell you what keeps me awake at night. What keeps me awake is that this whole situation will explode in our faces one day. When people have got nothing to lose and will throw all caution to the wind. That keeps me awake.
臺灣 = “恥”
馬來西亞 = “貪”
新加坡 = “辱”
“Good leader is linked to economic performance”
but
“Good Leeder is linked to lying and deceit”
Anybody remember Woody’s reply to the source of Hougang’s $100 million dollars upgrade when he issue this carrot as SM ? He doesn’t even know where is the source comes from and there is no preparation for it, how’s the f@$@uck he still have the moral ground and authority to become Senile Senior minister and hoodwink the nation ?
Again, and repeatedly, PAP never failed to self-praise and self-credit themselves with bombastic words. By calling themselves “LION” and “good” leaders, I have been thinking why many Singaporeans never feel such strong “leadership” in their bone. Perhaps we have heard of the word “LIONS” should be replaced with “LIARS” which is not too far fetched to describe our current leadership. Many would have agreed.
What do you expect Mr Peanuts to say????
Being a small open economy, Singapore’s economic performance is intertwined with the economic performance of the world’s economic powerhouses. The idea is simple. If we open our borders, allowing overseas corporates to outsource and offshore here, we get a slice of their growing pie.
This is basically the govt’s strategy in the 60s-80s. Then, our trade is not driven by organic productivity growth, but by the productivity and innovation of the Japanese. In the so-called flying geese model of the East Asian miracle, Japan is the leading geese, the rest including Singapore simply follow.
From the 90s onwards, Singapore turned to also service-led growth, aspiring to be the financial hub of Asia, and now to gaming. Again, the service-led growth is mostly non-organic, requiring foreign investment and liquidity, which eventually yoke our economy more tightly with the rest of the world’s.
For example, Sands almost went under, fortunately Singapore managed, through whichever means, to get them going in Singapore. Otherwise, our taxpayers will have to pick up the slack caused by bad decisions of the ruling party.
To exacerbate the problem, the low end of the service “production” chain is human intensive, perhaps explaining the influx of low and semi-skilled foreign workers here.
Point is, PAP cannot be credited for Singapore’s growth. Other countries, e.g. US and Japan, innovate, we just ride along. If other countries are growing their pie, we want a share for ourselves. If they fail, we suffer as well. There is nothing magical in the policies PAP is implementing.
In fact, I think this decade marks the worst of economic and social policies we have seen for this country.
My idea of leaders are those who are genuine concerned about our people welfare and progress. Economic success is a taken indicator for a nation leadership. No economic success, nation wouldn’t survive on this earth.
Maybe we could have a Singapore Genuine Advantage (SGA) to be “installed” in our so called leaders. SGA is an anti-piracy system created by Singaporeans that enforces validation of the licensing of genuine leadership. Hahaha.
Lets see what the nation so called economically success have bring us ?
- Work for life to buy a pigeon hole, then not enough $ for retirement.
- You die, ur business.
- People are mindless and timid, due to many years of social engineering since young. Gov say increase in transport, hdb, etc, peasants just pay and pay. Gov bring in lots of FT, peasants suffer in silent (very unhealthy, can go crazy). Our pledge say “to achieve equality, …”, but some are white horse who fly to BG (*) at young age, unbelievable. PM wife lost billions of $ but still keep job and got recognition.
- Law serves the rich and elite here, Justice will come because there is too much bad feeling and suffering on the ground. Dark cloud is forming by us over Sg, lightning will strike upon thee who are marked with the lightning sign.
- just start talking in coffee shop with older generations, and you get a longer list.
Dear SM Goh,
As head of the MAS regulating the banking & financial institution sector, MAS should instruct an investigation into the activities of GIC and Temasek investments asap.
Your concern must be to protect Singapore’s National Reseves under the management of both SWFs whether they are operating in accordance with proper and prudent investment criteria and guidelines. Any checks and balances including proper control and risk management functions and internal audits in place.
Both, GIC and Temasek must be accountable to the people of Singapore and to Singapore’s reputation as a major financial centre. Besides, a “AAA” rating for a small nation is of paramount importance.
The publicity caused by the recent failure of Stuyvesant Town in NY is of major concern and therefore, MAS must direct them to put both, their houses in order and issue a public statement to the effect. Thank you.
Best Regards
Peter Su
Taiwan economy under Ah Bian also not too bad wor.
In the Wizard of Oz, the lion is without his gut, maybe that is why many PAP MPs hide behind the guise of GRC bandwagon and took a free ride to the Parliament costing Singaporeans billions.
19Jan2010 Brussels: The EU’s executive arm will propose next month that the bloc’s data office, Eurostat, be allowed to “carry out audits” on information provided by national governments, Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said.
MrSM Goh,
MAS should follow EU proposed practice to carry out audits on GIC and Temasek.
Aiyoh! This idiotic puppet uttering rubbish again, oh my god, does he has any sense of dignity and integrity? It is already damn bloody horrible for a First Class Honor graduate in Economics from equally idiotic University to be a sycophantic parasite of the DOM and now here he takes pre-emptive strike again on behalf of the DOM and his useless son to mesmerize credulous and gullible born and bred Singaporeans.
Mind you, what he is referring to is the “SHEER theory” of the million-dollar miw under the tyranny rule of its top-echelons and exposes the ruling party’s oligarchy politic that has been created artificially by his MASTER-the DOM.
Yes, the DOM is the lion and the rest of them are just obsequious pappies including gct as the most obedient “SHEER” of the ruling party. Since, that’s the case, will this sycophantic “SHEER” instruct the rest of his party’s “PAPPIES” to just shut-up and keep-quiet to prevent further entangled and agonized the already disquiet cum disgruntled electorates of the “TIGER”—native, aboriginal and indigenous Singaporeans. The following analogies illustrate the “SHEER” theory that all the ruling party’s pappies can not even make speeches that make sense without the mentor and guidance of their “MASTER”, a bunch of true-sheers and nothing else:
1. Singapore is a city, not a country!
2. He is a man worth waiting for!
{After spending closes to 20 years in Singapore as a former Malaysian, using Singaporean’s Taxpayers’-money(subsidy in university fees) to study in “idiotic-university” for English Literature, work in SPH as a journalist and finally as a member of parliament in Tampines GRC but can not find her “dream man” in this tiny-black-mark yet, fall in love straight-away and find her “soul partner” whom she has been waiting for, during her very short stint (3 months immersion course) in the University of Edinburgh! What types of humiliation this brunch of miw desire-of to further insult the dignity and integrity of born and bred Singaporeans whom have stupidly provided them with exorbitant annual remunerations over the years? What a brunch of ungrateful nerds? What a shameful mp who dares to proclaim this type of mushy and mawkish statement publicly without due-consideration of the feeling of the main-street-men! May be Singaporean-men are all sissy as compare to the occidental men who are virile and “virago”!! THESE ARE THE BY-PRODUCTS OF EUNUCHS UNDER THE CHARGE OF THE TYRANNY LION! gct is one the of the most highly ranked EUNUCH of all! All men with no guts! Haheehaheehahee……}
[A Chinese proverb best describe her attitude towards the occidental people or simply the westerners: sycophantic admire western culture blindly! SHAME! SHAME! SHAME……………. ON HER]
3. It is a freak event!
4. Go and see your mp!
5. I am here just to understand the progress!
6. I am caught off-guard of the rise in property prices!
The list can go on and go……
My dear true-blue Singaporeans, what will happen to Singapore if the lion die pre-maturely in sudden disaster or cause of nature that was not previously planned? Then, the present ruling party will end-up liken to the long-lasting Chinese-proverb proclaims: When a tree topples, the monkeys will all disperse away! Do we have an opposition party ready for the take over? Is this what the ruling party envisions for the continuous survival of this tiny-black-mark? How selfish is this bunch of million-dollar miw under the guise of non-credible opposition parties deprive Singaporeans an alternative to political dissents by eliminating all credible opposition members?
Good luck to all Singaporeans under the dogma, dictate, tyranny rule of this selfish, despicable, mercenary and contemptible wrench—“shameless and selfish lion”!
No normal person will describe human being in a direct context as an animal when using analogy to get his or her points across.
Only a “real” animal in human form will describe human beings as animals when using analogy to get it’s points across.
I think this world is gonna be in a lot of shit soon if the majority of the leadership becomes like animals too.
Sad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE-49Bm_DHI&feature=related
TR, are you trying to give me nightmare by putting such a BIG photo of the Holy Goh on your front page!?
Frankly, my first impression after reading holy goh’s comment was that he was insulting my master, not the sheeps.
How’s our economy these few years?
‘king of the jungle”.
So what does GCT’s analogue mean about Singapore too?
“an army of sheep led by a lion is stronger than an army of lions led by a sheep”,
We need strong a leader rather than a weakling …
Wonder who is a … ??? hmmmmmmmmm