Lee Kuan Yew forecasts no property bubble in Singapore yet
June 26th, 2010 | 
Author: PAP strongman and Singapore’s self-proclaimed “forecaster extraordinarie” Lee Kuan Yew has peered into his “crystal ball” again to dispense his usual “pearls of wisdom” to his hapless subjects.
In his latest “forecast”, Lee said that there is “probably” no bubble in Singapore’s property market at a dinner hosted by the Association of Banks in Singapore.
A lawyer by training, Lee did not provide any concrete evidence or statistics to substantiate his statements except that foreigners still see Singapore properties as “affordable” due to the low interest rates.
“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,” he was quoted as saying in the Straits Times.
A recent report in The Economist wrote that Singapore properties are “20 percent overvalued”.
While foreigners may find Singapore properties “cheap”, many young Singaporean couples are struggling to afford a roof over their heads, prompting many to postpone marriage and starting a family of their own.
PRs are also allowed to buy resale HDB flats in Singapore which is fast becoming a sore point of contention among native Singaporeans.
There was a public outcry lately over the subletting of a resale flat by new citizen and YPAP leader Mr Sinha Shekhar who also happens to own a condominium at the same time.
Lee was also asked if elections will come anytime soon to which he gave a befuddling answer that he is “not the Prime Minister.”
Though by his own admission, he is not doing much work lately except doing “forecasting”, Lee continues to wield considerable influence in the Singapore government.
At 86 years of age, Lee, who is probably the world’s oldest living MP and minister, still shows no signs that he will retire any time soon.
His “forecasting expertise” cost Singapore taxpayers about $3 million dollars a year.
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Posted in Editorial
Why don’t he forecast his own “exit”??
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Very interesting thought MM has…
Anyone has the full transcript?
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There is a need for capital gain tax on non-owner occupied investment properties like in most other countries!
Singaporeans are being priced out of their own country.. Most of our pay goes into paying for the hugely overvalued flats, leaving little for ourselves. We the peasants are effectively mortgage slaves!
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Does this mean that property price is controllable to an extent?
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“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it.”
and this makes it expensive, so singaporeans will prefer to buy HDB flats instead.
and they cap the HDB flat supply, so that HDB flats have already turned unusually expensive, but now singaporeans have nowhere to go – they have to “let’s buy it” because the supply is capped and the regime cannot be changed so they have no choice.
this is different from other countries, whereby if the regime controls housing supply in an unfavourable manner, the regime can be changed, and the housing supply philosophy can be modified. 2000 years ago, ancient civilisations realised that the option of regime change must be kept feasibly open, to balance society between the wants of the regime, and the wants of the people. this philosophy is slowly being learnt by singapore.
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“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,”
Wait what? thats not how you gauge property prices!
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Well, there is the Pele curse in football…so what’s there to stop it here?
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Singapore high property prices is inevitable. This is to help our MIW to clear their excesses.
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Li Mui Hoong:
June 26, 2010 at 10:46 am
“Does this mean that property price is controllable to an extent?”
GOOD POINT. The housing market is MANIPULATED, not just controllable. Letting in a migration overflood and secretly allowing them to buy in the resale market for investment (while staying in a condo)and capping supply will FORCE UP THE RESALE MARKET. This set up the “benchmark” for HDB to profit greedily by lifting its own BTO to young couples enslaving them in perpetuity.
The end result must be a price bubble in “public” (read investment) housing, supporting GLC’s property based entities, banking sector and an air-bag economy.
WE ALL HAVE BEEN DECEIVED. VOTE FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT TO CHANGE ALL SUCH DEVISHLY CRUEL-CONCEALED DECEPTIVE AND OPPRESSIVE PUBLIC POLICIES.
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The Economist is a great world class publication.
I feel proud to share the same thinking that the flat is overvalued.
Is a forecast a guarantee?
What are the substantiating data?
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Li Mui Hoong:
June 26, 2010 at 10:46 am
Does this mean that property price is controllable to an extent?
in the past, prices were stable and sensible because the foreigners played their own games in the private market, while the public housing market was out of bounds to them, and the full control of supply and demand was managed to make it not a burden to a family’s finances.
this changed again and again with HDB now a major business. just like you can rent out your shophouse below to let people run a provision shop, or rent out the stall for someone to sell drinks, you can rent out your HDB flat to do business – this is the business of letting people have a home, because there weren’t enough homes to cater to a tremendous and sudden influx of foreigners over the last 5 years.
when you buy your home today, remember, you’re buying a business, even if you don’t want to run one. if you don’t buy, someone else can run a business. so if you want to have a home, you have to offer someone the price to forgo his business and let you have a life. can you afford to Leverage Buyout his Business?
(LBO, very fashionable, meaning take a 30 year loan so that your relatively smaller downpayment can transform into a gigantic sum to buy out an expensive business – this is only possible when you sign yourself to a 30 year burden, sometimes 35 years)
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“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,”
One statement like this demeans, devalues and belittles everything about Singapore. Everything in Singapore is up for sale. Our nation, souls, history, culture, future is for sale at the right price. Singaporeans are constrained in their thinking, bluffed, bullied and intellectually emasculated from birth. As adults they are pitched against the pitbulls of the world. There is absolutely no advantage in being a Singaporean anymore. Let them come and buy our properties, but like Australia, when they sell it they can only sell it to locals. Let them buy our properties, but shorten the lease to 30 years or as long as they physically live in Singapore. Raise their property tax, apply a capital gains tax for them. In short, they are numerous ways to ensure that Singapore is not being used as gambling chips. LKY wants Singaporeans to compete against this select group of PRCs, Indonesians and Indians, many of whom have acquired their wealth through dubious means. After all, who would buy houses with suitcases of money unless it is illegally acquired? Foreigners can’t buy landed properties? Who are you kidding? Show us the statistics of real Singaporeans owning landed property in Singapore if you dare.
The story of being internationally competitive means little to the hundreds and thousands young Singaporean men and women who can’t afford to buy their own homes. Be honest and admit that the Foreign Talent policy has been a failure and do something about it before it is too late. Telling lies after lies and believing in them is a recipe for disaster for both Singaporeans and the foreign talents who come.
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Mr Lee, 不要说鸟话 .
Foreigners buy Singapore properties not because it is cheap, but because HDB’s BTO scheme, coupled with liberal immigration policy, forces the masses to bleed every cent they have to support the property market for the rich speculators from overseas.
BTO scheme in itself is a market manipulation scheme that creates an upward bias by creating ’shortage’. … See more
With this scheme, HDB does not need to keep inventory, meaning supply always cannot meet demand, due to years in lead time for building new flats, IF HDB decides to build them at all.
Just imagine what will happen to COE prices, new and used car prices, if govt announce that COE will only be issued to today’s successful bidders 3 years later.
Moreover, Singaporeans are seen as complaint to their government, and there is no capital gain tax….. so all these factors makes Singapore property a safer place to park their money, and thus they buy Singapore property.
Effectively, PAP creates an evil trap for Singaporeans to have no choice but to vote for PAP, unless they can bear to see the property prices come under pressure.
Yet, gain in prices does not benefit the masses. In fact, it harms even the next generation. No upside, all the downside. That is the evil here.
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I donch noe much about property.
But this much I am certain.
Every time LKY makes a prediction about property—the exact OPPOSITE OCCURS.
Do remember the last time MM made a prediction about Singapore property prices having stabilized…Bingo ! property prices crashed after 6 months.
Going by that logic..We can expect property prices in Singapore to crash.
Temasek Holdings also have this tendency always TO FORECAST WRONGLY..just look at it’s investment records.
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Don’t understand what the government meant when they said real demand ? With so many foreigners buying multiple units, not staying there but wait for opportunity to sell at escalated price, isn’t it creating a bubble ? Government continuing to deny what is really happened does not help to solve the problem but instead helping to create a big problem for Singaporean ! The only way for Singaporean is to vote against PAP in the next GE to wake them up !
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His forcasting is quite the opposite most of the time.
A bubble is coming soon and I can’t wait to see it happen.
Then many of us young Singaporeans will have the chance to buy our hdb flats.
I hope Singapore fails!
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should the market crashed, you think LKY bothers? c’mon he don’t give a shit, if you are lucky he don’t start pointing fingers that you people are the ones causing the crash, not his fault, you dafts!
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“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,”
Soultion:
Levy a 20% tax on any foreigner and PR who buy a property in Singapore.
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He is out of touch. He sounded almost smug when he said “Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos.”
Does he know how the consequences will affect the citizens?
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SC:
June 26, 2010 at 10:45 am
“There is a need for capital gain tax on non-owner occupied investment properties like in most other countries!”
There must be capital gain tax for all residential investment properties in land scare Singapore to ensure efficient use of limited physical space for economic objectives. Housing speculation adds nothing to the real economy which the rest of citizenry needs for survival and development of our economy.
I am sure the HDB market is way over-priced. Just forced out purchases by foreigners and PR from existing HDB housing stocks, the price will collapsed at least 50% overnight. In Australia. foreigners cannot legally buy EXISTING housing but off development plans – meaning additional demand always be met with equal additional supply.
Why can’t land-scare Singapore be the same????
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SC:
June 26, 2010 at 10:45 am
“There is a need for capital gain tax on non-owner occupied investment properties like in most other countries!”
YES, I AGREE ABSOLUTELY.
I accidentally missed out this line in my previous post
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26/6/10
Singapore property market is so small compared to the USA which burst, and sent tsunami worldwide and we saw big banks with 3As ratings went under.
During the late Dr Goh Keng Swee’s funeral, his eulogy was the late Dr Goh was the brains behind the separtation of Singapore from Malaysia, all along, we were told otherwise ie it was UMNO who kicked Singaproe out from Malaysia.
Regards
Andrew Chuah
Ordinary Singaproean
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In a way, he is right.
But the property bubble is in China.
And Temasek, and our GLCs/GICs have invested heavily in China.
We are going to lose billions should the bubble in China burst.
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Hahaha Old Fart is Sinkapore reverse indicator in-chief.
Property bubbles to burst for sure.
Golden period coming. I loving it.
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Dear Old Fart LEE
If you are really WISE, shut your gap from now.
And stop sucking taxpayers MILLIONS to further swell up your bank account!
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I think he is paid $3M+12months of discretionary bonuses = $6M a year.
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For one who allow his wife to invest in properties “without his knowledge” – is there self-interest at stake to make such a speculative statement, when considering that the wife is no longer able to look after these investments ?
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” It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”
LKY’s latest prediction could turn out to be as famous as his last prediction abt singapore “entering into a golden age”.
Although SLA and HDB can control supply, but they can’t control international economic situation which will affect demand. If China bubble bursts,LKY has to eat his words once again!
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The passing of MM Lee will prick the property bubble.
He is talking it up while he is still around.
But he won’t be around forever.
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I wonder how many private properties the Lee family and other elites holds.
vested interest!
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HOW COME NO FLOODS FORCAST???????????
HOW COME NO FLOODS FORCAST???????????
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I, too, can forecast.
And I forecast that the old fart will die soon, within the next year or so.
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This Lee Kuan Yew knows nuts about banking & property and who the hell he thinks he is ?
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I forcast he will not be around come 2020.
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The old man is full of sh*t!! Singapore not only has the highest salary paid to local politicians, it has the highest cost for private car ownership, and highest cost for land ownership/property ownership when you take into account of maximum possible length of ownership. Where else in the world you have to pay in double-digit millions for a so-called penthouse condo unit that is only for 99 years? And he calls it cheap??!!?? By LKY’s standard of course, certainly not for ordinary folks like you and I hor…
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What lau!!All his forcast beh jun one!!He means a BUBBLE is gonna explode!!All u who invested in property better start selling!!Mai tu liao!!Run!!!!
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The longer he is around,the more woes will S’poreans faced.He had messed up our society and we could only pray for miracles to help us right it.We’d been taken for a ride with his bluffs and rhetorics for many decades and let’s get together to pray for change to come to our country.
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things never happen, actually happen. were they forecasted? so many years, they said they will never happen.
did he forecast sg was first country to go into recession?
did he forecast his daughter in law will lose 100s of billions?
did he forecast sg wasnt the first country to recover?
but i think he forecasted 6.5M and 2M FTs in Singapore -> he planned for it.
the merlion was hit, then flood came…. all signs of bubble. now the bubble is the bubble of displeasure and unhappiness with the policies and the government.
i forecast the bubble will burst at this election and throw some lousy ministers and mps off.
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Ya why dont he forecast on When He Is Going To Kick The Bucket.
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Dear All,
I work in SOHO, The Central. SOHO stands for Small Office Home Office. I seen many Foriegners Buying the apartments and not staying there at all, they intend to rent it or sell it later to the next higher bidders. What i am trying to said here is most of the office or home is not taken up at all, everyday i walk to my office, most of the aprtments is empty. This show that it is in fact over supply of private units but undersupply of HDB. He must be MAD.
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For God Sake! Even China ask him to mind his own business!
“We can be better than you, see we buy IBM to be Lenovo”
Bubble likely to burst when he is not around!
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I HOPE THE MARKET CRASHES!!
Otherwise, I never need to start a family.
I am pinning my hopes on the demise of the PAP empire for that.
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Here is the absolute proof of property bubble – right from the official horse’s mouth, no less.
Taking 1998 as the base year of post-Asian currency crisis as 100, the residential market index now is closer to around 280, up 180%. This is taken from URA statistics
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Singapore/Price-History
In the same corresponding period, our GDP has only grown to $265 bln from $142 bln up 86%. Bear in mind that 46% of the GDP flowed out of Singapore as wealth accumulation attributable to foreign sources.
In analytical terms, the gain in wealth using GDP as a surrogate measure for Singaporeans are only 59% ( 86% X 54%).
If your wealth accumulation since 1998 is 59% and your housing costs increased by 180%. HOUSING COSTS ESCALATED BY A FACTOR OF 3 TIMES COMPARED TO INCOME BASE ACCUMULATION.
Forget other rising costs eating away your disposable income in the 12 years, WHO SAYS THERE IS NO PRICE BUBBLE IN PUBLIC HOUSING?
Someone paid $36 million for a Sentosa waterfront home, in 1998, how many landed property can one buy with $36 million? Still no price bubble?
MAYBE THERE IS A PRICE BUBBLE ONLY WHEN IT IS BURST IN AN IMPLOSION JUST LIKE THE US SUB-PRIME MELTDOWN AND THE BANKS LIKE UBS AND CITIBANK CRAWLING FOR SHAREHOLDING SUPPORT FOR SURVIVAL?
Until the bubble burst, the balloon is still inflating, right?????
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In life artificial standings always comes down.
The bigger you are the harder you fall.
LKY is proberbly going to learn the hard way, i suppose.
He did much for Singapore, but his son and the New PAP, has completely lost it.
It is going to be a bad fall, unless we do something about it.
Eventually, only people born here Singaporeans, will want to stay here. The new citizens, if things do not go well, will leave.
Then what’s going to happen to Singapore.
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The second wave bubble should happen about Q3 or Q4 of 2011.
China property meltdown is about to happen soon. There are practically no sales of new property as their property is well over the top. This means a lot to the local property price. Either the funds will flow back to China or there will be a regional shake up.
We are all sitting on a big time bomb which the PAP has created.
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Well, I will say the same thing if I need more time to sell my properties and cash in…. afterall he ’s been around for a long time and probably played the same game many times over.Its a simple game plan, sell when it reaches the top and buy when it hits the lowest.Thats why the rich become richer and the poor become bankrupt.
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“Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let’s buy it. And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos,”
This argument is inherently flawed. If the Asian property bubble burst in Hong Kong and Indonesia, and Singapore must also be impacted, the consequences is that in comparison – THEY ARE ALL VERY EXPENSIVE given that the speculators are all driven to bankruptcy just like the European and US subprime burst.
The financial mathematics itself proved the fallacy of blue sky optimism MM postulated. Let me explain why.
If you bought a top-class condo for $10 million in Singapore – thought to be “very cheap” at the time of purchase. Another financial meltdown came from European banking sending tsunami wave of economic meltdown and crashed property prices say 2 years from now. Assumed that your top-class condo is now valued for transaction at distressed sale of $5 million. You have, in this circumstance, lost 50% of the purchase costs, right?. Assuming that you cashed out and re-invested that $5 million in Australia to recover your loss, YOU NOW NEED THIS $5 MILLION TO APPRECIATE 100% TO RECOUP YOUR LOSSES.
The moral of this example is that the DOWNSIDE RECOVERY RISK IS A LOT MORE STRENUOUS OF PAIN AND STRUGGLE than the hoped for upside AFTER the market crash. Those living in the mental paradise of unbridled optimism of property bubble ( until burst that is) overlook this fact that the bubble ( 100% recovery to recoup just 50% of the loss) is invisible.
It is a nightmare of Alice-in-Wonderland dreaming if the calculation of global economy turned sour.
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I bought a property in 1996 for 1.8m when there was excited just like now people bought properties like there was no tomorrow. I sold it in 2003 for 1.15m and was lucky to survive but many of my friends became bankrupts after their properties were auction. Don’t get excited and over extend your finances just because there is excitement but be caution. I had to pick up and start over again at my prime age. Its a game only the rich can afford to play because they buy to speculate and not to stay.
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Ever Since the Merlion was struck by lighting, it tell us the empire is at its end soon.
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When he will kick the bucket? anyone can forecast?
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THE number of millionaires in Singapore todate has risen by one-third to 80,947, the latest study by Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini SA has estimated.
Simply out of proportion compared to the other non-island, resource-rich developed countries.
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Anyone think he fit to be a doctor?
His HDB must be repossessed. How can HDB approve his rental? based on what reasons? To make profit?
He is being paid by donations from public and earning him both HDB and a condo. All these belong to the public. How many patients he treated and deserve this kind of rewards?
Is he overpaid Foreigh Thrash now Singapore citizen? Which school he graduated? Some school which paid only few hundred rupee? Which unit in Hou Gang he own? I think those rent his unit must move out and force him to pay lower rent.
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The property bubble is protected by our own evalaution unit. If any other country property agent companies agree, we are safe.
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Wow!:
June 26, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Does your figure include inflated property valuation or not? Recent BCG also spoke of rise in the number of millionaires which MSM EXPLICITLY AND CONSPICOUSLY says it does NOT include property. VERY STRANGE that I then read the same report in the Australian Sydney Morning Herald, using almost the same words, lines and paragraph quoted in our MSM of comment BUT EXCLUDED THE WORDS “EXCLUDING PROPERTY”.
So which one is accurate of truth in substance? The one with specific reference to “property ownership” or the one completely silent of that reference and both quote from Boston Consulting Group report??
It also puzzle me why the anomaly arise – which one is “window dressing” and which one is “undressing” of material disclosure of property asset valuation.
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@ Wow!:
June 26, 2010 at 11:35 pm
And in Singapore’s case, there could be a lot of “astronauts” floating millionaires who are PRC’s millionaire having a PR status here on temporary residence but whose business and usual place of abode is in China.
Plenty of PRC’s millionaires also exist in Argentina and Australia – all are “astronaut” tycoon with long-term and continuiing business commitments in PRC and their foreign legal residency merely “a rite of passage to a foreign passport” if emergency arise in China.
So the number of rise of millionaires in Singapore is very misleading of headline read.
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Hey lau Lee, don’t be daft!
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NoFuture:
June 26, 2010 at 11:01 pm
anonymous:
June 26, 2010 at 10:53 pm
hi bro sorry to pour you cold water and also anonymous that your theory may be flaw. This current batch of buyers are not our previous batch who use blood-sweat money from generations of hardwork.
These batch are mostly using fictitious money generated out from property inflation, shares market manipulation well supported by their local bank, governments and allies. Unlike 1995 HK who migrate here who use their hard earn money. The new batch do not need loan as most of these new tycoons are using cash. Only peasant like us still thinking to take loan to buy something we cannot afford. Bank will never give chance to these middle class.
The recent one is Japanese who invented this method who inflate their own property and then recycle the yen to buy all other countries properties. Fortunately their Yen is protected by high-tech goods and many real value made-in-Japan goods like Toyota. The richest nation is Japan and China who inflated their “not so worthy” land to a price more than others. China dare not loose their peg to Yuan because finally people may dump all the Yuan and the wealthy Chinese all know this. They change to Euro and US dollar to play safe.
This method only works on global scales because the money is runnign around. If this property transaction is restricted within country, the game will be over. All money gain from property inflation must not be cash to be use in any other country. Even smart Vietnamese know this rules of game and evaluate their “Ho chi Min” more expensive than orchard road. The problem is money changer keep devalue Vietnam dong when they inflate their property further and hence balance out their wicked money.
The bubble will burst when countries leader not agree with the game. The property price is dictated by these world leaders instead of free market now.
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I forcast he can never raise up from dead.
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I forcast he can never raise up from the dead.
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No property bubbles yet, must wait till flood can reach 2nd storey first..
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This batch is different:
June 27, 2010 at 12:45 am
My argument at June 26, 2010 at 10:53 pm cannot be possibly flawed. It is a mathematical truism. If you lost 50c in a dollar, you need to recover 100% from that base to recoup all your losses prior. So your long story in attempted refute of my “invisible” bubble do NOT connect in the remotess of possibility.
As for the nature of speculation in property now unlike 1995, there is no untruth and surprise as I did also posted. Plenty of “astronauts rich tycoon” from PRC floating around – I met some PRC “Argentinians” spending money on dinners in Sydney like water falling from the sky. Where they got so much cash? Could be corruption, could be underworld money, could be illicit loans laundered through Chinese banks, who knows? But they got cash and it won’t surprised me that these new breeds are driving property up without needing to see the bankers. But wait, if it is through banking source in China and these astronauts millionaires over-extended in China, a property crash there might forced their hands and liquidate their holdings in Singapore for their survival. The tsunami of bubble burst might turn out more nasty than you and I can imagine.
And as to your other strange comment below in quote
“China dare not loose their peg to Yuan because finally people may dump all the Yuan and the wealthy Chinese all know this. They change to Euro and US dollar to play safe…”
I find this incomprehensible to reality. Chinese Government had just announced its abandonment of the Yuan peg to US dollar a few days ago. And if the Chinese had been changing to Euro (and US dollar) to play “safe.” – that hardly accord to reality. If you check the chart for Euro against UD dollar in the last 2 months it fell from nearly from one USD to 1.50 euro to only 1.20 recently – the Euro fell 20% in such a short time reflecting the desperate economic and banking instability in Europe given the Greek sovereign debt crisis and that of Spain. In fact the ECB and IMF structure a 750 billion stabilisation fund last month to rescue Greece and Germany loaned more than 80 billion euro to Greece to keep this country tipping over into bankruptcy.
So which Chinese tycoon will be in a hurry to change their strong Yuan into Euro??? IT IS MYSTIFYING TO ME AND TO REALITY OF OBSERVATION OF REAL EVENTS EVOLVING IN THE LAST 2 MONTHS AND THESE EVENTS ARE COMMON KNOWLEDGE IN FINANCIAL MARKETS. With the pegging to US dollar off, US Dollar fell slightly last week against the Yuan. Frankly which informed knowledgeable businessman would swap their Chinese Yuan for either euro or US dollar when US Treasury Secretary Geithner and European Central Bank have been pressuring China to revalue the Yuan ahead of the G20 meeting in Canada this week??
Your assertion which I quoted above for this discussion defies all rational economic behaviour and business logic of wise men doing business.
Your theorising has more to do with speculative conjectures that reality of events unfolding in the real world.
I, therefore, respectfully, disagreeing with you necessarily.
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pap will let in 1.5 million more foreigners to hit its 6.5 million target population by 2020.
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When ask about whether is there an election coming, he replied that this question to be answered by PM of Singapore. If that is the case, so the question about property, he should also said that to be answered the respective minister of HDB rather than just sharing his own view which is 100% non-convincing.
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I am a active stock investor. If I am the STAR GURU investor, I will spread rumors about the market been strong and stocks I am holding a ‘MUST BUY’ counter.
With that kind of mad rush if my GURU statement is taken seriously, the stated counters will move and punters who bought early might said “wow, that GURU is so ‘jun’, everytime listen to him sure kenna ‘ho-kang’.
So what do I do next? If market is really strong as I have predicted, I might hold on to all the stocks I have. But as a STAR Investor, the trade pattern is to remember the first rule. I will sell all I have on hand to take profit when the counter is pushed up.
The last quarter housing sales for new private property and caveat lodged is lower compared to the previous quarter. Is there a trend forming? I don’t know, I am only good at stock market not property.
Go figure…….
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No price bubble? Are you sure? Not believable to me of that in public housing at least. HDB have been quietly (until recent days’ surprise disclosure) allowing foreigners and PR to buy in the HDB resale market for investment and rental income whilst owning and living in condos.
The HDB resale market, was artificially supported for some time already, by this policy. So how can there be no price bubble in this mass housing market providing the backstop to support the low-end private condo markets and creating an atmosphere of price bubble in the property sector in general.
I need to be convinced otherwise is true.
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Please, tell the old man to shut up. Too much of interfering in the PM’s work. He is now already talking illogical things but only clever to speak out of the past history and forecasting the events. As I say before, MM=SM=PM. Moreover, he is paying $3Million per year of his salary. At 87 years, what can he do now? Nothing, only using his cheeky mouth to talk.
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You already look embalmed! So shut up and lie down! We have had enough of your very expensive forecasting!!
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Please old man, dont HALF-TRUTHS, damn bloody sickening !!! He said, fundamental demand is there, yes agreed. BUT WHERE is the CORRESSPONDING supply – where where where, old cock ????
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Please old man, dont talk HALF-TRUTHS, damn bloody sickening !!! He said, fundamental demand is there, yes agreed. BUT WHERE is the CORRESSPONDING supply – where where where, old cock ????
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PAP also say there are no poor or homeless people in Singapore.
He is the seller so he sure say cheap. If you cannot buy, he don’t even let you sleep on the beach.
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No worries. No bubble. Talk is cheap. When the bubble bursts, he will still continue to draw his $3M plus pension and contine his forecasting job. Life under PAPies goes on.
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Property bubble occurs when most of the people purchase properties they cannot afford, and this is what’s happening now.. Most of us have seen our salaries being cut, or increments being frozen, while properties prices are increasing beyong reach..
Remember, we are just “leasing” our hdb for 99 years, so in 20 years time, those older properties, can they still fetch 400k/500k or even more? No rich foreigners will touch those, I am sure, since it simply doesn’t make sense..
Probably the next recession will see it crash..
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Dear MM
THANKS for the encouraging words to prop the local property market.
In a sense,it helps sustain confidence in our little economy.
That said,however,there is the real concern of LOW-COST housing becoming ‘multi-million’ OBJECTS of MANIPULATION by so-called ‘LOYAL’ new shitizens(sorry,CITIZENS?) and PRs/FTs.
It would be better economics and better policy implementations if this govt disallow PRs from purchasing LOW-COST housings for profiterring purposes as this would help them in a big way to GET RICH QUICKER and leave this country with huge sums of money they could never dream of making at home,leaving the average simgaporeans incapable of OWING his hmuble abode.
By the way,by TYING DOWN these PRs/FTs and new shitizens with more pricey PRIVATE CONDOS,they would be forced in some way to STAY here LONGER,and in that way,SERVE your purpose of ‘KEEPING’ them as more gebuine STAKEHOLDERS and not some ‘FLY-BY’HIGHT’ hot money investors.
I am quite sure if you take my humble suggestion ad that all of the good sngaporeans here,you can SIEVE OUT the genuine FTs from the ‘HOT-MONEY’ mercenary kind of PRs/FTs .
please DO THINK ABOUT IT.
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@ LIONS ROAR:
June 28, 2010 at 3:53 pm
You said it very well. But how do you know that foreigners and PRs not unofficially advised that the laws can be selectively ‘SEXED-UP” to allow only them to buy HDB flats for investment purposes whilst we publicly tell our own law-abiding “SHITIZENS” that they will be RUTHLESSLY CRUCIFY by the same “law” from doing the SAME?
Of course, the artificial demand would also ‘SEX-UP” the property bubble which we will always denied and publicly always asserting that it is “affordable”.
Just look at this report from the latest report from the BANK OF INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENT. Here is some interesting insights.
” The Bank for International Settlements warned on Monday that economic recovery is at risk of a relapse if governments do not move fast to wind down crisis stimulus programmes.
The BIS said the crisis had left a “daunting legacy” especially in industrialised nations….
The BIS said the crisis had left a “daunting legacy” especially in industrialised nations….”
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100628/tts-bis-bank-finance-economy-c1b2fc3.html
Singapore is plugged into the world. EVERYTHING IS SO GLOOMY, FRAGILE AND CAN COLLAPSE AT ANY MOMENT. IT IS SCARY ACCORDING TO BIS BUT MAYBE NOT TO THOSE SPECULATORS IN THE SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET.
Our vulnerabilities have been proved beyond slightest doubt. Singapore’s first quarter GDP 2009 fell by over 20% – the fastest and deepest in all developed economies, MAYBE THE WHOLE WORLD as well on that occasion.
Now that property prices here rise by nearly 25% in less than 18 months, and the world is nearly collapsing, THERE IS NO PROPERTY BUBBLE HERE???????????? It is mind-boggling for me.
The realities warning by BIS contradicts the sunshine economics gospels around the world. Or is Singapore’s puny economy driving the gigantic global economic fundamentals instead of the reverse as in 1st Qtr 2009? Or am I dulled of stupid economic reflections?
Maybe I should consult my kindergarten teacher again. I failed my kindergaten leaving examination, so fortunately I am stuck in there and can seek help from the simplest level of economic logic and realities. Anything else is most likely to overwhelm my little poorly-developed intellect.
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Whosh, A sharp steep chart piercing move down of more than 4% today on the Shanghai Stock Exchange sent a tsunami sell-off in Asian and European market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS
It cuts through the vainly-struggling to hold support level at 2,500 in just one trading session must prove the liquidity crunch in the banking systems and or a complete loss of confidence of the Chinese economy or both. Why, the Chinese are preparing for the big Agricultural Bank IPOs and people got no money to buy or they fear that the bank is desperate for money.
If the stock market slaughter continues for another week or two in Shanghai, its property price bubble might burst sending an even bigger tsunami shockwaves across all Asian property (and stock) markets.
Let us see if there is NO BUBBLE AS YET OF SINGAPORE PROPERTY MARKET. When it burst like a bomb explode, we will know if there is a bubble or not.
Keep your eyeball locked in the Chinese stock market the next 2 weeks.
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Can the Forecaster Extraordinaire be depended for his predictions ?
How much value can we place on his words ?
How often has his forecasts gone awry in the past ?
Abstract from ‘Holidng Lee Kuan Yew Accountable’ Part 1 – Chee Soon Juan – [ http://yoursdp.org/index.php/perspective/special-feature/1881-holding-lee-kuan-yew-accountable-part-1 ]
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[QUOTE]
There’s nothing wrong, of course, about making bad predictions. Let’s be fair, everyone at some point has made calls that have turned out embarrassingly wrong. Mr Lee has made, and will make, his fair share.
The difference with the MM’s words is that they drive policy formulation which involves spending of billions of dollars of public monies. Once spoken, these words precipitate PAP groupthink; few dare to tell the Mr Lee that he is wrong, let alone hold him accountable for his errors in judgement which have catastrophic consequences.
Oracle of the East he is not but you wouldn’t know that if you spoke to the servants with whom the MM surrounds himself and on whom he lavishes made-in-heaven salaries. These highly intelligent individuals apparently go into a synaptic short-circuit when they are in his presence and suspend all form of independent thinking.
[UNQUOTE]
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Abstract from ‘Holidng Lee Kuan Yew Accountable’ Part 2 – Chee Soon Juan [ http://yoursdp.org/index.php/perspective/special-feature/1882-holding-lee-kuan-yew-accountable-part-2 ]
[QUOTE]
In Part I of this essay, I drew attention to the fact that Mr Lee Kuan Yew was negligent when he, in a speech he delivered in July 2007, called on Singaporeans to “maximise our opportunities in this golden period.” This happened at a time when the world’s economy was already teetering on the brink.
But some argue that Mr Lee is no longer the prime minister and hasn’t been one for nearly two decades. Why should he be the one to take the blame? Take a look at what he wrote in his memoir:
‘Singapore’s financial centre was considered over-regulated compared to Hong Kong’s. Critics wrote: “in Hong Kong, what is not expressly forbidden is permitted; in Singapore, what is not expressly permitted is forbidden”…Only after the MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) had demonstrated the strength of its system to weather the financial crisis of 1987 and 1997-98 did I feel confident enough to move closer to a position where what is not expressly forbidden is permitted.’
Note the pronoun. It was he, not the cabinet, who allowed the financial system to become less regulated. Note also the period: It was post 1997. He was not the prime minister then, it was Mr Goh Chok Tong. Why was PM Goh not the one to decide which course our financial system should take?
But why is a speech Mr Lee made in 2007 even important in the present crisis?
If you were a Lehman Brothers’ investor back then and had heeded the MM’s advice, you would have ploughed even more money into buying the minibonds. (Some of the Town Councils obviously did.) If you were looking to buy a house, you would have paid top-dollar for the bubble property price. And if you were looking to start a business then, you would have borrowed heavily to capitalise on the boom.
And if you were Mr Lee or his daughter-in-law, Ho Ching, you would have placed tens of billions of dollars of our reserves in Western banks. Which is exactly what they did.
[UNQUOTE]
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I can’t believe this article appeared in Google News! Great work! Google likes your writing!
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