What is the total fertility rate of the new citizens?
September 6th, 2010 | 
Author: OPINION
Speaking during a community event at Radin Mas yesterday, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew reiterated yet again that Singapore needs immigration to make up for the shortfall in population with Singapore’s total fertility rate (TF) reaching the historic low of 1.22 last year.
As the current immigrants are mostly adults in their 20s to 40s, he hopes that ’the immigrants who come here will have more than two children, so maybe the next generation, we may redress the problem’.
What if the immigrants have a TFR similiar to native Singaporeans?
The key reasons behind Singapore’s low birth rate are economic, rather than personal, as the PAP would like us to believe:
1. Stagnant wages: Unlike in the past, it costs a lot to have kids in Singapore nowadays. The median monthly salary of an average Singapore worker remains stagnant at $2,400 for the last ten years.
2. Higher cost of living: The annual inflation rate of between 4 – 6 percent far outstrips the paltry interest rates the banks are offering right now which means that the values of our savings actually depreciates with time. Unless one belongs to the top 20 percent of the income group, it will be difficult to start a family with such meagre savings and pay.
3. Sky-rocketing prices of HDB flats: In the 1970s and 1980s, it is possible for a Singaporean to pay off the HDB mortgage in ten years. Now, in dual-income families, a couple will have to take up a thirty year loan in order to do so. A roof over one’s head is a most basic requirement for starting a family. At today’s astronomical prices, it is hardly a surprise that more and more young Singaporeans are postponing marriages and starting a family of their own.
When the immigrants relocate to Singapore, they will be subjected to the same set of conditions as Singaporeans. An Indian from Chennai may be able to have two or more children, but will he afford to do so in Singapore at our cost of living?
As the Prime Minister has revealed himself in his recent National Day Rally speech, not all the new citizens in Singapore are high income earners. Some of them are just blue collar workers like bus drivers, cleaners, clerks and technicians. Will they be able to have more than two children in Singapore?
In all likelihood, they will probably have two or less children if they decide to get married in Singapore or worse, childless which will not increase Singapore’s TFR by much?
What is the TFR of the new citizens? The Singapore Department of Statistics should reveal the figures for Singaporeans to judge for themselves if immigrants are contributing to Singapore’s TFR as proclaimed by MM Lee.
If the immigrants have similiar TFR to native Singaporeans, aren’t we creating a bigger problem for ourselves in the future?
The immigrants which we are accepting yearly – about 20,000 new citizens and 90,000 PRs will grow old one day and will impose a tremendous strain on our already stretched public healthcare system.
The government should not keep imploring Singaporeans to accept immigration by plucking figures out of thin air without showing us concrete evidence that immigrants does contribute to Singapore’s TFR.
What is the targeted TFR for the immigrants in order for Singapore to have a combined TFR above the replacement rate?
What is the median income of the immigrants?
What is the number of immigrants who leave Singapore with their children to prevent them from being drafted into the army?
In the absence of these official statistics, there is no way we can be convinced that immigration is essential to boost Singapore’s declining birth rates. For all we know, we may end up providing a “free ride” for some immigrants who will retire back home where the cost of living is much lower after earning a living in Singapore for a number of years.
At the end of the day, it will be native Singaporeans who are penalized by the government’s failed immigration policies. The new citizens and PRs can always pack up and return to their lands of birth if things go wrong here, but not Singaporeans who have nowhere else to turn to.
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Posted in Opinion
the new citizens from overseas also dont have many kids. perhaps the only way is to buy a few chickens from geylang and creampie them to have kids! LOL. these are the only ‘foreign talent’ that can help increase the birth rate!
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its only the cost ???
what about the propaganda, its also part of reason for low fertility,
what about the “FIX”, its also part of reason….
what about the pace of life, stress, human pigs of all kinds….
what about lack of space for creativity, innovation, …
what about the “free loaders”, “rejects” and “fly by day and night”
who came here for what else….
what about …..
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What? One generation of FTs enough alredy! Really want them to breed out native Singaporeans???
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import the rich ppl lor…. That’s what old lee believed in. “Include grad woman in your breeding pool or u’ll get more stupid population.” That should apply to rich ppl (Rich+rich=richer).
ps: Take the above with a bucket of salt…
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some policies that result in problems down the road need to be brought up and discussed. many years ago, there was a “stop at two” policy. i don’t remember there being a very vocal opposition to it as compared to the unhappiness caused by foreign migration now.
this foreign immigration policy is partly, if not largely, a result of the stop at two policy of many years ago which resulted in a lack of people currently aged 25-40.
i really see no link between CURRENT fertility rate and immigration.
if what we lack are BABIES, then please, by all means, import BABIES.
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[Quote: As the current immigrants are mostly adults in their 20s to 40s, he hopes that ’the immigrants who come here will have more than two children, so maybe the next generation, we may redress the problem’.]
Again, this old fart’s mentality is forever never change. He is always forecasting when in the end his prediction can be all wrong. Old fart, are you an economist by training? He is talking cock and bull story. It seems that our native Singaporeans who can easily cheated by him, are stupid, ignorant and lesser mortals as what you at once time told us off. As I say before, this new citizens are not so naive as you think. Your PAPigs make our country very messy now. Do you know that our indigenous people are not happy of your stupid policy. Shit!
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fact, rich couples do not want children, they want to enjoy 2 person living space, free and free from ‘burdens’.
middle and poor couples want children but they are being pull back or too poor to support children cause of the high cost of living in singapore.
pr and new citizen, they simple won’t want their children to suffer here (ns), so they will go back to their country if they want to have children.
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Immigrants must work extra hard at night. The quota is one and half year per child.If they can not meet the quota, fuck them out.
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I have worked with many PRs and foreigners before. Those average ones i.e. S-Pass or the lower E-Pass, mostly postpone having kids. They just want to earn plenty of money in Singapore and then go back to their country to buy house, get married and have kids. Then they may come back to S’pore to earn more money while their spouse and kids stay back in their home country.
Those higher E-Pass ones may have 1 or 2 kids. But if the kid is male, they will send him back to their home country after PSLE, coz after that they will need to pay Singapore govt $200K as security bond for the son to do NS. That’s why the ironic thing is many PRs, especially PRCs, prefer to have daughters if they are staying on in Singapore. Many of them even purposely abort if the foetus is male. They have also figured out that girls are more advantaged in S’pore, faster to complete university and have head start. Even if going back to China, they realise that the shortage of younger females is to their daughter’s advantage, and nowadays young female executives earn as much as, if not more than, their male counterparts.
That’s why you see those Cheena PRs, if they got kids, chances are that it is daughter!
For Ah-neh PRs, the cultural bias for boys is still too strong. Hence they still prefer to have sons, but they will scheme to get the son to avoid NS.
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Btw, those PRs and new citizens, even if they are earning $4K-$5K salaries, 99% of them will only have 1 or 2 kids at the most. Because the cost of living in S’pore is too expensive. They become just like local Sinkies — have 1 kid, pin all their hopes one that 1 kid, send that kid to all sorts of enrichment and CCAs — sports, music, extra tuition, 3rd languages, etc. So everybody end up the same, whether Sinkie, PR or new citizen.
Only those PRs earning over $20K a month, then they may have 3rd or 4th kid. And most of these type of families also won’t really sink roots here — they are too cosmopolitan and they just move to wherever there is better opportunity. If local rules & responsibility are not worth it e.g. NS, they can simply bypass.
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wonder why do they keep putting the blame on us when it is them who started the whole thing that cause the fertility rate to go down?
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Papies do not care so much. Their priority is to take care of the business comunities to make more money. More foreigners come means more profits for them. Low pay to the foreigners and good profits for the business comunities. Singaporeans competing jobs with the foreigners.
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“The key reasons behind Singapore’s low birth rate are economic, rather than personal … ” Ok i shall not add the last so that I take a neutral stand here.
The KEY reason that Singaporeans don’t get married, don’t want to have kids is purely economical. Let’s just put it this way.
Since the 80s, Singaporeans have been “told” to stop at TWO, and all Singaporean kids have been treated like Princes and Princesses of the 80s and 90s. When the economy came to a slow down in the “double-digits” growth, our dear Leeders asked themselves, what’s wrong? It’s because Singaporeans are not having enough Children, thus no spending powers thus economy cannot grow, so they PUSHHHH us to “grow” but because the level of comfort that Singaporeans have back in 90s and also, with the economic crisis, we didn’t move.
So it became: “Notti Peasants!!! we shall bring in more new citizens to help in our growth!” thus leading to today’s situation, whereby our Leeders needs this Viagra to help them maintain their fake erections at the same time, the Native blood that circulates and brings the true orgasm refuses to flow accordingly. So results in more viagra and less use for the native blood and the cycle repeats itself.
However! When the viagra induced blood becomes part of the native, they’ll also face the same problem and will react the same way.
So then, NEWER “enhancement drugs” will have to be introduced to maintain Leeder’s Manhood.
the point is, When a Government makes the first bad policy, another 20 other policies by the same Government to “remedy” the effect will only result in the same incompetence.
The only true solution is for Singaporeans to take back what’s rightfully ours, a home that’s for Singaporeans, not a Corporation of PAPpies.
The power is in our hands. Vote Wisely.
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Quote “Some of them are just blue collar workers like bus drivers, cleaners, clerks and technicians.”
12 years of first class education(till O level) can land a job above. This is shame! If these salary is able to meet the standard of living in SG. Why no local is doing?
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Many New PRs made their own babies in their country.
Many New PRs came here with kids.
GET IT RIGHT. Even if they are impotent now, they are still superior in the eyes of PAP.
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give PRs a quota lah.. in 5 years you don’t have 2 children. Fine them big big, then kick them out.
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The truth for locals and foreigners or PRs or FTs or whoever crap:-
1. extreme high cost of living making it very difficult to have babies
2. too much time spend on work, no time for family
3. little incentive – cpf rebates are virtually useless
4. education cost, hospitalisation etc… are extremely high, no incentive for couple to have more than 1 kid since they dont get subsidies on anything ie school, hospital/birth.
They should consider lowering/discounted hospital bills for second and third kids and also their tuition fees in school. This will help!!! Those BS CPF rebates are really nothing!!!
The baby problem is universal, nothing to do with Singaporeans, more to do with government, making the country too expensive for anyone to have more babies. They only pay lip service and offer meagre sum in cpf rebates to boost fertility. If they offer to give up 50% of their millions and offer to Singaporeans, I m sure there would be immediate improvement.
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Guest who should be responsible for the low birth rate in Singapore? The answer is Lee!
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I wo9nder if this OPINION will ever be published in the ST? Or is it too much for the ST to dare?
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Gloomydays:
September 6, 2010 at 8:51 pm
Guest who should be responsible for the low birth rate in Singapore?
why complain?
it’s sinkies’ fault,mah.
who asked us to STOP AT TWO?
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PAP Traitors are anti-family, destroy people’s future.
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If the new citizen are not producing more than 2, how can they help to solve the aging population problem ? Moreover, many have only 1 children! PM Lee should produce data on how new citizen has helped to solve aging population problem!
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The population in 1999 was 3,958,700 – with the citizens and PRs numbering 3,229,700.
By 2009 it was 4,987,600 – and a resident population of 3,733,900.
Over the ten year period, while the total population had exploded by 1,028,900 – the number of citizens and PRs had grown only 504,200. [See Ref #1 below]
Resident Live Births in 1998 was 41,636 – and in 2008, it was 37,277
[See Ref #2 below]
Resident Total Fertility Rate in 1998 was 1.48 – and in 2008, it was 1.28 [See Ref #2 below]
If after 10 years of inflow of migrants that continue relentlessly over ten years, the Total Fertility Rate can decline from 1.48 in 1998 to the present 1.22 for 2009 – as announced by MM LKY – surely the MASSIVE INFLOW OF FOREIGNERS IS NOT WORKING !!!
Clearly, the Foreigners becoming New Citizens are NOW BEHAVING LIKE ALL CITIZENS in CONTINUING THE LOW BIRTH RATE TREND.
Clearly, MM LKY and his incapable proteges are refusing to look at the cause of the poor fertility rate in Singapore, and are refusing to compare Singapore to Sweden which is having a successful birth rate despite Sweden’s reputed High Taxation and High Cost of Living environment.
Clearly, MM LKY has forgotten his own explanation that POLITICS is NOT about WINNING ELECTIONS – as POLITICS IS ALL ABOUT LIFE, which he explained is about putting food on the table, looking for security and shelter for the family, and working for a better future for our successive generations.
Clearly, the low birth rates amongst Citizens – both old and new – are largely due to the failed policies of the Pro Alien Party in denying our present HIGH COST OF LIVING without any assistance from the Government, the deliberate suppression of Real Wages, and the deliberate changes to the traditional stable employment contract to one that is short term to allow employers to hire and fire according to the state of the economy.
It is obvious that the Pro Alien Party has lost its own directions and kicking the ball into their own goal – even as they keep changing the rules to give themselves the advantage and tie the feet of the Alternative Political Parties, as well as to plaster over the eyes and mouths of Singaporeans.
*
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Reference 1
Table A5 – Population 1871-2009,
Pg 27 or PDF Pg 37/72
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/population2009.pdf
Reference 2
Table A12 – Live Births and Birth Rates, 1980 – 2008,
Pg 44 or PDF Pg 54 / 72
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/population2009.pdf
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When you are stress, you can even get a decent erection. How to have babies? This is the most elementary law of procreation. No need complicated “stesticle” data “ANALysis” to figure this out.
One must be free from stress and burden to lead a healthy sex life. Stressful living conditions in Singapore resulting from the many unfavoruable govt policies has a direct negative impact on the fertility rate.
When you have to work your ass off to pay for everything, nice ass doesn’t attract you anymore.
Lead by example, each Mi$n$ter should at least have 3 children and all must attend Singapore school all the way to Tertiary level. If they can’t do that, how can they expect lowly poor peasants like us to be able to perform such miracles?
Oh and for PRs (aka fallen talent, i mean foreign talent), the quota should be higher, like at least 4 children or else you lose your PR status.
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NOW,have you guys heard what GCT SAID MOST RECENTLY ON tv?
he said that out of say,500,000 PRs,he will try to persuade 50,000 of them to become NEW SHITIZENS.
WELL,NOT THTA I CARE ABOUT THESE NEW SHITIZENS BUT THE FACT IS THAT mr gct ALSO SAID THAT THE REST OF THE 450,000 ‘can work here’ AND ‘contribute to the economy”.
so,as an elected MP and HIGHLY PAID SM,MR GCT is saying IT’S OK TO HAVE THESE PRs takin gour jobs,in other words?
what kind of an MP AND SM is he?
can someone here tell me?
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i have voted for goh chok tong and many others have. IF i have known this is his intention than sorry. I feel betrayed. I can only accept genuinely good FT and PR BUT sorry no buyllshiters and actors. E
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LIONS ROAR:
September 7, 2010 at 10:16 am
it is a progress of survival of the fitest and survival needs
what do you expect them do when all else fail
and please stop call new citizens shitizens
if you are not willing to post your true identity and since you also roar the loudest – does that makes you any better
there are some new citizens that are truly exemplilary citizens, neighbour, wife or husband
I would go as far to say SOME are better than our citizens
so please respect people as you wish that others respect you
if need target policies and so on
this is not a person note to you but a general one
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hi picknose
stop being a hypocrite.
so why are you calling yourself picknose ?
it is my prerogative to call these foreign cheats and liars whatever i want and it is none of your business.
why don’t you go and tell these foreigners who call their hosts stupid paigs and other names like dogs etc to respect you if you are singaporean????
i use the term shitizesn to reflect the ugly foreigners on the aggreagte and i am not concerned with one or two that you have met.
in any case,ther are so many bloggers here applying different names to address these foreign trash and you have use the term FOREIGN TRASH yourself and so,please don’t act as if you are a gentleman standing so uprightly on high moral grounds when you are not!
stop all your hypocrisies and as for your ‘THIS IS NOT A PERSON NOTE TO YOU BUT A GENERAL ONE’,PLEASE SAVE IT FOR YOURSELF!
GO FLY A KITE!
OR YOU CAN GO AND JOIN PM LEE on his trip to PRC!!!
WHAT A JOKE AND WAHT A JERKY HYPOCRITE YOU ARE!
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Singapore Total Fertility Rate had reach historical low at 1.22 last year, we did better than Taiwan where most public school had gone bankrupt, a ratio of 10 students per class room. Most school teachers and tutition teachers are out of jobs.
As the current new immigrants are become like one of us, 5C comes 1st, babies can wait. Some of these new immigrants are just PR, they will return back home to where they come from. Singapore is a “transition station” to American or Europe & China
Our PAP Govt is very savvy & shrewd
1) CASINO – within 3 yrs the returns will be back
2) CASINO – is one business China will NEVER touch
3) Legalized – Geylang Red Light District better control in 1 area, better teaching of sex safe practice, easy monthly medical check up
4) Legalized Prositution – is one business China will NEVER touch
5) Stem Cells & GM Corps General Modifty Foods Research & Contiunous Development – American & British will is too Traditionalist, Christian-ism, Conservat-ism they will NEVER touch this business
6) Increase of Singapore Population – PAP Govt. knows these new immigrants PRs will “NEVER” take up citizenship. PAP Govt. is “using force” by threatening these new immigrant their PRs status will not be renewes (why they do that??? last night during 30yrs of Shenzhen Mr Hu Jin Tao said:” expect 1)Political Reform 2)Economical Reform 3)Open Up Door To Foreign Talents. This is fierce competition
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It is not a secret that to start having a family you want everything to be in place. If only living condition in Singapore is comparable to laid back lifestyle in Australia then people will start thinking of having family. Singapore is dense with people, everyone fight with each other to live, and competition is so fierce. Singapore economic growth is good; however, low fertility rate is the trade off for this. I, for one, do not think it is a good place to start having family and have kids.
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Why would a PR take up citizenship when a PR offers more freedom? Going by past history : will they be able to come back and get PR status again under another name/identity?
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Ai Yeoh, Otherwise how to get SD3M Salaries for Senior Ministers.
Must have new idea from the Upper End : (Foreign Talent) FT to increase (Total Fertility) TF Rate.
Why Singaporeans are not fertile enough?
Need also Foreign Talent to do this work???
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8/9/10
These new citizens are second, third and scum classes and they are here and they would simply produce and produce and at the end of the day, their offsprings are all poor qualities ie no brain, brainless, cannot think, retarded or mongoloids……this is what I see and our Modern Singapore will be far worse than Malaysia or Indonesia where the local Malays and Bumiputras having an average 6 children and their governments have to take care of them and productivity plunges to the lowest (more true in Malaysia and we have seen the qualities of their leaders who are brainless, no brain, cannot think, retarded or behaving like mogoloids),.
Regards
Andrew Chuah
Ordinary Singaporean
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If your wang don’t work then you need exercise! Not some magic pill, people not in shape do NOT deserve to get laid, it’s bad DNA!
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Terrific work! This is the type of information that should be shared around the web. Shame on the search engines for not positioning this post higher!debt free loans
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I may not have all the answers but it seems to me that there’s enough economic research and real world evidence that suggests that government intervention is one of the main sources of the fertility problem and more of it could not only lead to the breakdown of the family structure but also to reducing outcomes for those children in single parent households.
Read more at http://bit.ly/a2cv53
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Post w full links at:
http://forums.asiaone.com/showthread.php?p=483356#post483356
References:
- YI, J. and ZHANG, J. (2010), ‘THE EFFECT OF HOUSE PRICE ON FERTILITY’: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG. Economic Inquiry, 48: 635–650. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00213.x [abstract@ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00213.x/abstract ]: “It is found that a 1% increase in House Price (HP) is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades.”
- ‘Housing Prices affect Birth Rates as well… !!!’: “The objective of HDB flat was originally meant to provide families a rooftop at a reasonable low cost. It has diverted so largely from its original objective in late years and this issue had affected many young couples especially local Singaporeans. I really strongly hope that the government would take measures to curb all these rising prices. ” [REACH 16Sept2010]
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