Understanding Singapore Election Results

First, a disclaimer is in order. This article is neither supporting PAP nor any opposition parties.

The objective of this article is to perform an analysis so as to understand what is most likely to happen in the next election without putting in any personal opinions, biases or prejudices in the analysis. The objective is not to support/criticise the PAP or to support/criticise any opposition parties. It is just to make a realistic scenario that we will reasonably expect to happen in the 2019 election. The author’s personal political affiliation is not important and does not play a part in this analysis.

When one reads the articles the social media, it is quite amusing that readers often complained about the “70% daft Singaporeans”. In reality, one needs to cool down, think rationally and work out some numbers to understand why PAP had won the 2015 election and is expected to win in the next election in 2019. And this has nothing to do with the “70% daft Singaporeans”.

First, please look at the demographics of Singapore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Singapore

Let’s highlight some data that we will use in this analysis.

Year 1990
Population = 3.0471 million
Citizen = 2.6237 million
Citizen to population percentage = 86.10%

Year 2000
Population = 4.0279 million
Citizen = 2.9859 million
Citizen to population percentage = 74.13%

Year 2006
Population = 4.4014 million
Citizen = 3.1079 million
Citizen to population percentage = 70.61%

Year 2011
Population = 5.1837 million
Citizen = 3.2572 million
Citizen to population percentage = 62.84%

Year 2015
Population = 5.5350 million
Citizen = 3.3750 million
Citizen to population percentage = 60.98%

Let’s divide Singaporeans into two groups.

• “Local Singaporeans” = Singaporeans before 1980 and their children
• “Immigrant Singaporeans” = Immigrants into Singapore after 1980 and their children

1980 is a good year to do some benchmarking because …

• The birth rate of “Local Singaporeans” started to remain/fall below 2 children per family from 1980. So the number of “Local Singaporeans” now cannot be more than what it was in 1980.
• 1980 is around the time where foreigners started immigrating into Singapore in significant numbers, although the immigration rate was still relatively contained from 1980 to 1990. (Most families have more than 2 children before 1980 and foreign immigrants has negligible influence on the population growth prior to 1980.)
• For all practical purposes, “Immigrant Singaporeans” (that is, the foreign-immigrants-turned-Singaporeans after 1980 and their children) are likely to give close to 100% support to PAP.

Looking at the above data, we find the citizen to population percentage steadily decreases from 86.10% in 1980 to 60.98% in 2015.

Let’s be generous and assume that the proportion of citizens to population is very high at 95% in 1980. Since the Singapore population is 2.414 million in 1980, this means that the number of Singapore citizens is at most 2.2933 million back in 1980. So this analysis will benchmark 2.2933 million “Local Singaporeans” back in 1980.

As mentioned earlier, the number of “Local Singaporeans” would decrease over the years from 1980 to now because most families have 2 or less than 2 children from 1980. However, let’s be generous here and assume that the number of “Local Singaporeans” remained the same at 2.2933 million over all the years.

Now, let’s see what this means for the demographics of Singapore.

Year 1990
Citizen = 2.6237 million
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.3304 million

Year 2000
Citizen = 2.9859 million
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.6926 million

Year 2006
Citizen = 3.1079 million
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.8146 million

Year 2011
Citizen = 3.2572 million
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.9639 million

Year 2015
Citizen = 3.3750 million
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 1.0817 million

Now, let’s look at the last 3 election results. Let’s be generous here and assume that only 95% of the electorate in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group voted for PAP. We can reverse engineer to work out the percentage of electorate in the “Local Singaporeans” group that voted for PAP in the last 3 elections.

We will make one assumption here, that is, the proportion of eligible electorates is the same in both the “Local Singaporeans” group and the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group, since both groups have children, etc. (The raw data suggests that approximately the electorate is about 70% of the number of citizens on all 3 elections, but there is not enough information to split the percentage into the “Local Singaporeans” group and the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group.)

Year 2006
PAP total percentage vote at 66.60%
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million at 56.51%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.8146 million at 95%

Year 2011
PAP total percentage vote at 60.14%
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million at 45.49%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 0.9639 million at 95%

Year 2015
PAP total percentage vote at 69.86%
“Local Singaporeans” = 2.2933 million at 58.00%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 1.0817 million at 95%

However, in actual facts …

• The number of Singaporeans in the “Local Singaporeans” group is less than 2.2933 million. So the number of Singaporeans in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group is more than the numbers given above.
• More than 95% of the number of Singaporeans in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group will vote for the PAP. Now, these are NOT daft Singaporeans. They genuinely support the PAP government for a chance to live a relatively better life here than in their previous home countries.

This means that the proportion of Singaporeans in the “Local Singaporeans” group that voted for PAP is less than the numbers given above.

Singapore is expected to have an election in 2019. Given that the number of Singaporeans in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group grew by 64.2 thousands from 2015 to 2017 (even when the government claimed to have ease off foreigner immigration), we would reasonably expect the number of “Immigrant Singaporeans” to grow by (at least) another 64.2 thousands from 2017 to 2019, that is, we expect at least 1.2101 million “Immigrant Singaporeans” in 2019.

Even in the extreme scenario, if the number of Singaporeans in the “Local Singaporeans” group remains at 2.2933 million and no “Local Singaporeans” vote for PAP while 95% of the 2.2933 million Singaporeans in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group vote for PAP, PAP will get an astounding 32.81% of the votes.

And if only a modest 40% of “Local Singaporeans” vote for PAP, PAP will get 59.00% of the votes.

Finally, let’s us make a small adjustment to revise our estimate to make a more realistic analysis. Let’s assume that the number of “Local Singaporeans” decrease by 1% every year. (The actual rate is likely to be more than 1%, but let’s be generous here.)

After making this adjustment, this is how the election results would look like.

Year 2006
PAP total percentage at 66.60%
“Local Singaporeans” = 1.8948 million at 48.42%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 1.2131 million at 95%

Year 2011
PAP total percentage at 60.14%
“Local Singaporeans” = 1.8364 million at 33.17%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 1.4208 million at 95%

Year 2015
PAP total percentage at 69.86%
“Local Singaporeans” = 1.7929 million at 47.68%
“Immigrant Singaporeans” = 1.5821 million at 95%

In 2017, the adjusted number of “Local Singaporeans” is 1.7722 million. Since there were 3.4392 million citizens, the number of “Immigrant Singaporeans” is 1.6670 million. This means that the number of “Immigrant Singaporeans grew by 89.9 thousands from 2015 to 2017.

By 2019, the adjusted number of “Local Singaporeans” is 1.7522 million. If the number of “Immigrant Singaporeans” grows by another 89.9 thousand from 2017 to 2019, we will have 1.7519 million “Immigrant Singaporeans”, that is, the number of “Local Singaporeans” is roughly the same as the number of “Immigrant Singaporeans”.

So even if no “Local Singaporeans” vote for PAP and 95% of the “Immigrant Singaporeans” vote for PAP, PAP will get 47.50% of the votes. And if a modest 40% of “Local Singaporeans” vote for PAP, PAP will get 67.50% of the votes.

Given that most “Immigrant Singaporeans” will vote for PAP, while some “Local Singaporeans” will also vote for PAP, we can be sure that PAP will win the 2019 election with or without the “70% daft Singaporeans”.

Please be reminded that the objective of this article is to perform an analysis to understand what is most likely to happen in the next election without putting in any personal opinions, biases or prejudices. This is a rough analysis that is based on a best-estimate basis and is not meant to be prophetic. There are always factors that the analysis did not take into consideration, for example, marriages between a Local Singaporean and an Immigrant Singaporean, etc. Please feel free to point out if there were any assumptions made that can be improved.

Despite this being a rough analysis, I hope the article will help all Singaporeans to have a better understanding and insights into what we would expect to happen during the 2019 election, so as to be able to make meaningful interpretations of the 2019 election results.

An important point to note is that the majority of the 70% Singaporeans who supported PAP in the 2015 election are “Immigrant Singaporeans” who genuinely support the PAP government. These people are not daft and calling them names will not change the outcome.

Finally, we will realistically expect even more “Immigrant Singaporeans” in 2019, so we should adjust our expectation of what is likely to happen during the 2019 election.

 

A Nobody

 

 

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37 Responses to “Understanding Singapore Election Results”

  • opposition dude:

    The PAP’s vote share shot up in 2015 compared to 2011 because of gratitude voters, not just because of the new citizens.

    When you have the older generations still around remembering how they were upgraded from kampung zinc and wood with no electricity nor convenient water supply to HDB flats with working lights and taps it’s definitely a massive overnight change. You can’t really change people if they have gratitude in thier hearts due to this and decide to vote for PAP irregardless of the massive import of non Singaporeans.

    I guess the both the 70% and 30% already know that PAP is going to be the government after the next GE due to the new citizens and the kiasees alone. The best we can hope for is for more opposition to be voted in or a coalition government but we all know that the kiasees aren’t ready for that.

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  • consensus by manipulation:

    yr analysis is wrong… it cant be that much the immigrant Singaporeans form PR converted to a citizen in large numbers..the hint is that there 500K PR still remaining PR in Singapore and refuse to convert. this number is higher than those who convert ( around 20K per year)..

    the result of the last election was due to some factors like carrots and fear mongering of a freak election because the opposition contested all seats.

    Therefore assuming yr logic is correct.. we have to go out and actually see for ourselves how many are now citizens from their manner of speech dressing and talking.. it is difficult to obtain the differentiation of citizens and PR..

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  • Hidy:

    Few interesting observations:-

    1. Older migrants who came here more than 20 years voted against PAP.
    2. New migrants voted PAP.
    3. Many locals still fear voting against PAP.

    My neighbour pro pap till he lost his job to FT, still fearful of voting against PAP. This kind of fear, don’t know how to describe. Replaced by FT and jobless still afraid of voting against PAP. Surely many people fall into this category when they still have a job.

    Fear has made many locals coward, they rather wait to be replaced than vote against PAp.

    I believe as migrants live here for many years, they will eventually turn against pap when they are being replaced by newer migrants as we move towards 10M!

    Locals are simply hopeless.

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  • Mainstreet Citizen:

    And it’s not even including the number of local ex-Singaporeans who migrated over the years, majority of whom are disgruntled with the P.A.P.

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  • HarderTruths:

    I do not believe this is correct as large number of civil servants, MRT, SBS etc., will all vote for pappies. For sure. How many local citizens does the government employ and how many in the private sector?

    I think the local public sector workers is about 50% of all citizens employed in $G – which means this is where the majority of the local votes would come from.

    Old folks depending on pappy charity will vote pappies. Nothing to do with loyalty. They are scared their life will be over if pappies lose.
    Say this sector is 10%

    Those in the private sector who are also well off will vote pappies. say 5%

    So you get 65% easily. This is a matter of looking after their on skins.
    Just a typical $G trait.

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  • doggie:

    It would take the full effects of the pain caused by this bad govt policies for the local daft and ft turned citizens to massively turn against them. It would be a long time and by then? damage would be done.

    Start planning your exit.

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  • rukidding:

    I fully agree with the Author.

    There is NO WAY that any Opposition can WIN by numbers considering that all New citizens ( easily 800k to 1 million )are all ” thanking Pappy” for the “sky drop” reward in terms of property, safety and currency value compare to what they are receiving back in their original birth land.

    The only way that a “reverse” action can happen is when this place faces a recession or bubble burst or some epidemic which only GOD can make it happen.

    We need a crisis same as what happened to DUBAI the last time !…where most immigrant “run road” due to large outstanding debts !

    Only such incidents can OPEN UP the EYES of those SLEEPING or DREAMING of New Citizens being LOYAL to sinkieland !

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  • oxygen:

    THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS IS FLAWED TO INFINITY – look around you, there would be as many PR PMETs jobless and native PMETs. New citizens are NOT somehow immune to the distress of PAPpys failed population recycling economics – older “new immigrant” citizens are also displaced. They join the population Q later than local, has less CPF savings to pay for their inflated housing and even less cash to pay for healthcare. They faced the same MRT jam and disruption.

    Our economy according to PAST TENSE maxed out in 2005 and PRESENT TENSE confessed the same in 2015.

    IN EFFECT, PAPpys confessed they failed of economic management since the turn of the century. This impact on ALL Singaporeans to varying degrees – whether native born or new immigrants.

    So I cannot see how they remain loyal to PAPpys for giving them the chance of “better lives” than where they previously comes from. They could be worst off now and even with lower wages in their country of origin, they could be better off returning there if they could.

    I recall some statistics that nearly one-third of Sinkies who migrated overseas are actually “new migrants” who changed their minds after tasting the real thing. If they come from China to avoid the dictatorship rule, do you seriously believe they want their children to live in fear of autocratic government of the PAPpys too?

    Do you think they like to see their CPF locked up after 55 if they have any amount in excess of the minimum sum? Do you think that they like their CPF locked up in HDB will vaporized to zero and they can’t leave anything to their children? In Australia, USA, Canada, what they bought of house or apartment is permanent gift to no ending generations.

    Those who voted for PAPpys are truly daft – including the simplistic mind of this writer. Human are by nature political and economic animal of construct.

    THE FIRST LESSON IN POLITICS IS THAT LOYALTY IS FOR THE SPECIE OF ANIMAL – they don’t eat their own kind, human kills their own kind to get ahead.

    This writing is naive and stupid of self-delusion.

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  • PAP is BEST:

    This one is too long I can summarize one sentence, PAP best one sure win.

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  • oxygen:

    GOING BY THE SIMPLISTIC MATHEMATICAL DERIVATION of this author – A Nobody – it must mean that PAPpys would have a CLEAN SWEEP in EVERY CONSTITUENCY OR GRC.

    WP would never have won any seat EVER in any election – even the one-time win of LEE LI LIAN of Punggol East smc was a freak and SPP win in Potong Pasir too.

    And of course, the voting outcome percentages would also be UNIFORMLY throughout in all constituency/GRC with little variation in percentage difference – DEPENDING SOLELY ON THE RESIDENTIAL DISTRIBUTION MIX of new immigrants.

    I don’t see this happening – not in the last GE. One new migrant from South Asian sub-continent try bidding for votes (in a 3-corner fight) among new immigrants as base support – he lost his deposit. HHH – another new immigrant tried as independent barely got past the post keeping her deposit with help from native peasants votes.

    So the voting pattern refute the claims of this article writers.

    There are DUMB VOTERS and there are also intelligent voters. SDP and Dr Chee gained increasing support.

    BUT ON THE WHOLE, me thinks across the political divide, THERE ARE A LOT MORE DUMB GULLIBLE VOTERS who swing votes for PERSONAL CONSIDERATION, not national interest consideration.

    How many votes swing to PAPpys for

    - estate upgrading with implied hint of property values?

    - deceptive promises of Pioneer Generation Package scam?

    - to GST relief vouchers (taking CPF money out of peasants to pay peasants?

    How many voters out there understand the realities of

    - asset enhancement politics scam of transferring wealth from the poor to the rich?

    - CPF is a scam (excess of returns of invested CPF money got stolen by unknown parties) and forcibly imprisonment of CPF past 55 in the false pretext of looking after our old age is IN FACT AND IN LAW theft of private property?

    - HDB is a rental scheme, not house ownership – 99 years it vaporize to zero whilst peasants paid for the land but not included in the lease contract?

    - the pioneer generation package spread over 30 years is a scam of hollow log accounting to hide even more money from peasants’awareness?

    EVEN HIGHLY EDUCATED VOTERS ARE CLUELESS of these chicanery.

    How many voters understand that PAPpys failed foreign influx is nothing more than population recycling economics which even Tharman admitted to foreigners in New Dehli as BOTH POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY STUPID – destined to fail

    How many university educated voters knew in 2015 that the economy has MAXED OUT in 2015 (admitted only in 2015) – meaning that PAPpys are a mob of incompetent failed economic managers. They shouldn’t be voted back in without strong check and balance politics?

    SUSA LAH!

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  • rukidding:

    In the next GE, we, the Native Citizens should insist that the election department releases the actual figures of those eligible for voting and provide a detail info regarding a) Numbers of eligible Native borned citizens and b) Numbers of New Converted (immigrant) Citizens.

    Doing so,…would be the FAIREST THING to Native Born Citizens !

    But, knowing PAP,….this will be a FAR FETCH ideal !

    International Human Rights should “rightly” provide a Guideline as to “allowable %” of New Citizens vs Native Citizens .

    I my honest opinion,…because NOBODY “dares” ask these questions or “thought of these uneventful happenings of New Citizens being able to “overule” native born in “votes”,…thats why we( the native born ) are now probably already a confirmed goner !

    Otherwise….Why wuld oldfark dare call you ,people “Dafts” ???

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  • Selfish Sinkie Syndrome:

    Too many assumptions in the analysis.

    For example, he said “Let’s be generous here and assume that only 95% of the electorate in the “Immigrant Singaporeans” group voted for PAP.”

    This is too generous. I sense many immigrants are shifting their loyalties because they also finally woke up and realize they’ve been hoodwinked by MIW. I even know of a former immigrant who packed up and left for good after she got angry with the policies here after about 10 years as “new citizen”.
    The longer these “immigrant citizens” stay here, the more defections occur because the vomit piles up gradually over time and makes them finally puke.

    Also, compared to the apathetic local borns, some new immigrants are actually more politically active and are quite openly hostile towards repressive governments. I was surprised when some of these new China immigrants do not hold back at all and voiced out against Singapore policies openly, when we side with US on certain issues.

    Later, when I thought about why their behavior is such, I realize it made sense because some of them actually moved to Singapore precisely to escape from their own oppressive regimes at home.

    Some of them can be even more politically forceful than local borns…just think of how mainland Chinese can dare to stand in front of army tanks during their Tiananmen Square revolt back in 1989 or how they will do sit-in protest against arrests of FaLunGong members. How many local borns have that kind of courage? I doubt any local born will do that. No one here will even dare squeak but some of these “new citizens” really dare to go protest in the streets if they are really angry.

    There is also no point to differentiate between “new immigrants” and “old” citizens after their initial honeymoon period over, because they are facing the same policy impacts as the local borns and they have the same choice as voters.

    If the “new immigrants” also blindly anyhow choose and disregard the consequences for their own lives and their next generation here, then they are no different from local borns in terms of daftness too, right?
    Whats the difference? Both are rightly still classified as dafts for not using their own brains.

    Lastly, if there’s any final takeaways from this analysis, then it should be this:

    ALL the local born citizens MUST go ALL OUT to vote for opposition the next round since this analysis says that the small percentages of local born voters left, will likely allow MIW to unfairly get another big advantage.
    Therefore, spread the word that we need EVERYONE to vote for opposition as much as possible. Tell all the old uncle and aunties, Die die also no more “pang-chance” for them anymore.

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  • Seeing is the believing:

    Can anyone prove that the GDP is independently audited?

    Why is China a province found to have cooked it’s GDP ?

    Why some boxes found ?

    Are you all regurjitators ?

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  • Leejiapore:

    Analysis makes sense. LHL knew locals are are having their breakfast, lunch and dinner stolen by foreigners due to his liberal immigration policies. But he needed the votes from new citizens to keep his job. He was not wrong when he said foreigners create jobs; jobs for him and his cronies. They love FTs because their iron rice bowls are becoming golden rice bowls.

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  • PÀP all in:

    PAP all in ?

    Oppies all out ?

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  • 50% Chances:

    The first thing to do is we must reduce the opposition parties possible to two. If they can do that, there will be a 50% chance Opposition May win more seats in Parliament.

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  • Penang Khawk:

    consensus by manipulation:
    yr analysis is wrong… it cant be that much the immigrant Singaporeans form PR converted to a citizen in large numbers..the hint is that there 500K PR still remaining PR in Singapore and refuse to convert. this number is higher than those who convert ( around 20K per year)..

    the result of the last election was due to some factors like carrots and fear mongering of a freak election because the opposition contested all seats.

    Therefore assuming yr logic is correct.. we have to go out and actually see for ourselves how many are now citizens from their manner of speech dressing and talking.. it is difficult to obtain the differentiation of citizens and PR..

    MANY SMART PR never converted. They insist not to convert.

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  • Boy boy:

    Which of your eyes audited the election results?

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  • CCK:

    Below 21 not eligible to vote lah and vote turn out < 100%

    Nevertheless, the message is clear … folks, the tipping was in 2011 …

    No more chance liao, PAP rules forever cos kept fixing constitution and alternate parties, be prepare to suffer further …

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  • ganeshsk:

    A thought fun analysis which is even supported by the 30 % because the PAP keeps ramming up the PWP.

    But as you mentioned the New immigrants feel they have a better life from teh countries they migrated from. But tides are changing. That could be tilting factor.

    The new immigrants might not be around to give the support. They always had their back up plan. SO taht hope fully will shift the opposition demographics in parliament.

    We are looking at baby steps.

    If we can get more than 1/3 it is a game changer.

    2015 was a freak show. Lets not include it in the analysis. But than again anything freakish might happen again in 2019.

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  • oxygen:

    THE WRITER, A NOBODY, HAS NO UNDERSTANDING OF PRCs – they are the OPPOSITE of average Sinkies.

    PRCs are determined striving lot – their minds thinks 3 steps ahead of Sinkies in any conversations, they strive to be AHEAD OF THE TIDE and let the tsunami wave of tide takes them forward ahead of the rest. They won’t be contented with passivity and following.

    So you can bet that the average Ah Tiong mind of new immigrants will never be the slavish “obedient, insecure and many at time fearful of authority”. They bent all rules, take risks in aggressive behavior and hardly fearful of authority so that they will ahead of the societal tide, not swimming behind the masses.

    If PAPpys think they can oppress Ah Tiongs like your average Sinkies inflicted with Dunning-Kruger mentality (too stupid to know even they are stupid), they are wrong to infinity. If Ah Tiong to get their way – by hook or crook, they turned the table on PAPpys faster than the sunrise heading for sunset. So I don’t understand how this writer A Nobody came to the strange unsubstantiated conclusion that PRCs would remain loyal to PAPpys. Ah Tiongs only loyal to money inside and outside China – never mind if XiJInPing or POO YI sits on the emperor throne or a prostitute occupy that seat of power. Money and “me” is all that counts in Ah Tiongs calculus. Does “A Nobody” heard of these Chinese ruthlessness of self-interest preservations like – Kwer her, tiu pan ( crossed the river burnt the bridge) exploit this wan ern fu yi ( return evil for kindness given), Kuo yan pai mai kou rou (menu says sell lamb chops, the waitresses serves you dead puppy meat), huang ti si loong liu (the emperor’s throne is rotational). What fiacking loyalty is there? There is no permanent enemy or friendship – only gains to be had that matter. Ah Tiong left China got no loyalty to Xi JinPing got loyalty to PRESENT TENSES?

    Fantasy dreaming lah. Ah Tiongs are wild species, cannot be tamed, unlike Sinkies.

    There are so few Chinese-owned listed entity in Australia and so few PRC in top jobs but of the few that got there – THEY MADE VERY BIG COMMERCIAL CRIME HEADLINE READ.

    Hanlong exec gets largest insider trading sentence in Australian history

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/hanlong-exec-gets-largest-insider-trading-sentence-in-australian-history-20160311-gngjji.html

    So why is PRC new immigrant to LEE-jiapore made of different material, Mr. A Nobody?

    Their loyalty is money and get rich quick. Obstructed or frustrated of their pathways, the PRCs will vote opposition politics to put pressure. If they can handle Mao’s China, they kick PAPpys a*ses for a big laugh.

    Loyalty to PAPpys, YOU KIDDING MATE.

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  • oxygen:

    THE GENERATIONS ENTERING INTO VOTING AGE for the first time of these “new immigrants” are entirely different from their parents. They want good life and freedom too as their counterparts – connected by internet – living in North America or Down Under. I see this Down Under – they are NOT even filial to their own parent who provide for them (struggling so hard) before they graduate from university. How can these new generations of PRC- not born in Sinkieland loyal to PAPpys when they have no roots in their place of birth and their own ancestral belonging and family loyalty too.

    They are like our own millennials – me and “me only” strawberry generations. They are only loyal if they get their unlimited wants satisfied, Minus that, they have the political guns pointing in your face – untamed wild of mercenary outlook.

    So it is mysterious how @ A Nobody extrapolate his statistical analysis without understanding the social fabric and evolving societal complexity which must be the biggest determinants of voting behavior.

    BUT NATIVE SINKIES OF COURSE ARE NEAR DEAD CATERPILLARS – waiting for the passing (foreign) bird to fly past, pick them up for quick juicy dinner. Some even belief this fiction of “foreign talent” – just ask the PRCs new immigrant themselves if they think they are “foreign talent”, they will laugh inside their heart that it is a big joke to con locals. If they are real talents, they would be migrating to far more robust challenging environment with far bigger opportunities. Some of the foreign talents could only work in sleazy entertainment place, even hawking too.

    Any PRCs MP in our parliament or heading up as CEOs in listed entity after 20 years of absorbing such foreign talent? And if there is real talent in this foreign influx absorption, there would be far fewer of them around maybe a few thousands only(not million but sell massage services) but occupying top roles in business and government.

    Given such low quality foreign influx, if our unemployed PMETs are struggling, so must be the “untalented new immigrants” – what reward will they get hanging on and giving loyalty to PAPpys?

    IT IS MYSTERIOUS OF LOGIC of this writing from A Nobody.

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  • Python 5:

    >>>2015 was a freak show. Lets not include it in the analysis.

    >>>We need a crisis same as what happened to DUBAI the last time !…where most immigrant “run road” due to large outstanding debts !

    2015 was because of LKY demise and SG50 BABIES factors.
    it was 2 triumph cards being utilised by LHL at the same time to boost his vote base.

    maybe next election could be 2019, to seize the 200year old bicenntenial thing.

    yes. you bring about a huge massive property meltdown to remove all the FTs and their condo speculations. (subprime, dubai, icelandic meltdown)

    a total complete meltdown that will make the 97/98 crisis look like an ant vs a Blue whale. make those banks lelong the condos like dirt cheap smartphone covers found in pasar malams.

    then you have all the locals drowning, dying and decomposing in their debts coming from their million-dollar condos.

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  • I gonna masturbate in a while:

    ganeshsk:
    A thought fun analysis which is even supported by the 30 % because the PAP keeps ramming up the PWP.

    But as you mentioned the New immigrants feel they have a better life from teh countries they migrated from. But tides are changing. That could be tilting factor.

    The new immigrants might not be around to give the support. They always had their back up plan. SO taht hope fully will shift the opposition demographics in parliament.

    We are looking at baby steps.

    If we can get more than 1/3 it is a game changer.

    2015 was a freak show. Lets not include it in the analysis. But than again anything freakish might happen again in 2019.

    WP should rename to People’s Workers’ Party,. PWP.

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  • Nearly Faint:

    Two groups in focus here. First, the older citizens mainly baby boomers and what’s left of generations before them. Second, new immigrants citizens who has not yet feel the actual wraft what current citizens going thru.

    For the former group, like it or not, they will eventually be replaced with millennials who are beginning to reject msm bullshit for alternative media, more curious of facts rather than follow mental gymnastics blindly and are less optimistic in how the country is being run.

    For the latter group, majority will return their mainland including their children after reaping through its system and finding that SG is not as livable as they thought it was.

    After all their mainlands would eventually stabilize both economically and socially i.e. new asian tigers .etc

    The cycle of topping up new citizens will continue but so does the battle of ideas and beliefs.

    The world is changing so it comes down to whether or not the government of the day practice true democracy and if they are for or against the people.

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  • 我爱打手枪:

    50% Chances:
    The first thing to do is we must reduce the opposition parties possible to two. If they can do that, there will be a 50% chance Opposition May win more seats in Parliament.

    But pinkies are loose sands, extreme kiasu, kiasi , Kia BOR, Kia CH. EXTREME SELFISH.

    渔翁得利。

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Population mix & their Political voting pattern – A Treatise written by A Nobody is too simplistic & the numbers too static. I don’t know if the writer, A Nobody had travelled overseas to major cities in the world. All major cities draw in migrants due to their economic pull – jobs, economic opportunities & a vibrancy of life. If he had gone to Tokyo recently, he would have noticed that the once-homogenous Japanese capital now have numerous foreigners from Russians to Bangladeshis. And S’pore is not alone in this regard. But there is a crucial difference; S’pore attract foreigners for POLITICAL REASONS – vote-buying, vote-banking, shifting alliances, etc; whereas all other economies attract foreigners simply to meet labour shortfalls in certain category of industries but they were never long-term settlers (on temporary resident pass) re: US H-1B visas, Australia’s 457 visas. They are just temporary ECONOMIC SOLUTIONS. In the case of UK, it was the free flow of EU migrants from within the EU states which led to the UK opting for BREXIT. Again, Economic reasons over political factors.
    And the difference is in the quality of foreigners between those who come to S’pore & those into other economies are STARK! In S’pore, the PRC who come here are loud & uncouth, rough in their edges & likely to possess fake credentials. You never hear PRC Chinamen talk loudly in public places in the US, Australia or Japan. They speak in low tones & conscious of watching eyes. In contrast, the PRC Chinamen in S’pore talk loudly in public places as if they own the whole place.
    If you cut down to the basic core, the foreigners who come to S’pore were of a lower quality – in skillsets, in language skills & are of uncertain accreditations (fake, forged & bought degrees). If they could go to the US, Canada, Australia, UK – they would have done so, instead of S’pore.
    Most of them are using S’pore was a springboard to emigrate to better economies within the next few years. It is a kinda of ‘Money Laundrying’ scheme to improve on their resumes; embellished their work experience together with an improved S’pore passport in order to move up the mobility ladder.
    And those who remained behind in S’pore were obviously those who can’t migrate due to certain reasons.
    The other factor is that Millennials (both locals & foreign) being more connected with the Net are envious of the lifestyle that other more vibrant economies can provide. S’pore’s is too regulated; too strait-laced to ever be as attractive to places like NYC, LA, San Francisco, London & Tokyo. And 10k to 20k S’poreans leave S’pore for overseas destinations – many never to return.
    But one important theme for S’pore – it is failing ECONOMICALLY! This is the…

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    …crucial factor that will make or break PAP’s stranglehold over S’pore.
    The late LKY had left behind a DYSFUNCTIONAL S’pore simply to make it easy for his cancer-ridden son to manage. A Yes-man cabinet; scandalous high pay to elicit loyalty from his cabinet & foot-soldiers & an economy beholden to cough out monies to feed the political elites (aristocrats) at the expense of the masses re: your high cost of living eco-system.
    But apparently their own Propaganda had gotten inside their heads; they’re believing in their own crap! They’re getting too comfortable in their own comfort zones; not realizing that the ground that they’re standing on is shifting. They only want to hear the sound of their own voices instead of heeding warning from more discerning & reality-grounded people.
    Even within TRE, there are many who thinks that the S’pore Property market will still power under it’s own strengths to greater heights simply due to the present En Bloc phenomena. They have sarcastically remarked that all the doom & gloom have come to nought & that these people are STUPID!
    But they are ignoring the greater picture which is unfolding right before their eyes; the monetary easing over the last 2 decades is winding back; the era of zero-interest rates are ending leading possibly to future higher interest rates; the era of artificial GDP growth is ending simply because the fuel for their growth ie. DEBT has reached their limits!; and Demographics & resource limits are holding back future growth prospects.
    In a sense, those who remained in S’pore are also the victims of long-drawn process of force-feeding on PAP propaganda/indoctrination stuff plus many rear view mirror experts who believe in cyclical events instead of structural changes. In a sense, those in S’pore are a different breed from those who have seen the light! Those who remained in S’pore were either (1) those who have built for themselves a relatively comfortable zone eg. parents who pampered their kids (the Strawberry generation) or (2) the Bo-Pian generation who were ideologically embedded with a limited thinking ability through the PAP education system re:’What can the opposition do for me?’ or ‘Foreign talents bring in jobs & economic opportunities for locals’; willing to drive Uber/Grab on gig jobs upon graduation with a degree.
    Years of PAP political machinations have brought on a indoctrinated electorate unprepared for a chaotic future (technological disruption & discontinuities). The PAP themselves are cocooned with their own sphere of power & monies not realizing that the world has moved passed them. The lack of leadership is seriously evident. PM LHL & his wife who hold all the levers of power & leadership are…

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  • oxygen:

    @ A Nobody,

    I WASN’T RUDE, CAUSTICS NOR XENOPHOBIC when I wrote the paragraph below.

    oxygen: PRCs are determined striving lot – their minds thinks 3 steps ahead of Sinkies in any conversations, they strive to be AHEAD OF THE TIDE and let the tsunami wave of tide takes them forward ahead of the rest. They won’t be contented with passivity and following.

    So you can bet that the average Ah Tiong mind of new immigrants will never be the slavish “obedient, insecure and many at time fearful of authority”. They bent all rules, take risks in aggressive behavior and hardly fearful of authority so that they will ahead of the societal tide, not swimming behind the masses.

    Sinkies are NO MATCH for Ah Tiongs – they seek actively, insidiously and ruthlessly to shape their surroundings and the world IN ALL THEIR INTERACTIONS – definitely NOT the “very obedient, insecure and many at time fearful of authority” In their mind, they could figure out that authority is far far away and impotent – tian kau huan ti yen (Heaven is high, the emperor is far away). That was the lesson we learnt the hard way in Suzhou Park – our backside got played at their leisure.

    YOU ARE STARING AT REALITY OF TRUE LIFE HISTORY THAT CANNOT BE ERASE.

    A lowly-ranked young Suzhou Provincial official almost devoid of worldly experience came in to chat with PAST TENSE who got an “orgasm” turn on by his persuasive mouth and put in billions. Surrounded by “very obedient, insecure and many at times fearful of authority” PAPpy advisers/ministers and MPs didn’t pick up the Chinese nuance and cultural superiority of cunning deceptions – this LOT of gullible fools were just nodding cows marching into the Chinese Suzhou abattoir to be slaughtered. It was the case of young duped the OLD FOX OF WISDOM and lots of MBA-trained useless in tow.

    Predatory Ah Tiongs don’t think nor behaves like Sinkies, so how can @ A Nobody thinks and validly concludes that simple arithmetic addition of population numbers accounts for how they voted in the past and how that could extrapolate into future voting pattern.

    They vote with their $$$ sign on their thinking forehead. How many Chinese listed entities on Hong Kong, Canadian, US, Australian and Singapore stock exchange (beautifully called “red chips” instead of “yellow culture similar to porn” chips which rewards its shareholders? How many were just wasteland of dying corporate corpses if not outright fraud.

    PAPpys failed of economy in the last 12 years at least, Chinese immigrants don’t waste their lives betting on failures who can’t make it.

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  • oxygen:

    @ A Nobody,

    IF ONLY SINKIE VOTERS ARE JUST HALF AS SMART AS the Ah Tiongs, we could have recycled out the PAPpys long ago with far better economic managers in charge.

    And we certainly won’t find ourselves trapped in this sinking feeling of stressful fight for survival now. Definitely it won”t be these

    - in 2015 we confessed the economy MAXED OUT

    - in 2016 we confessed restructuring failed and

    - in 2017, the COMMITTEE FOR FUTURE ECONOMY practically has no recommendations of policy direction forward i.e like that famous CHUT PATTERN of I DON’T KNOW WHAT TO SAY.

    NO NEED TO SAY ANYTHING ANY MORE – we are a MOB OF FAILURES led by failed leadership.

    If Sinkie voters still refused to repent in 2020 – well WE GOT WHAT WE VOTED FOR THEN – IT IS FAIR.

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  • Patriot:

    I believe there is a great deal of truth in this analysis. PAP has become dependent on new citizens to win elections. This is why they have Khaw, ex malaysian, as their Party Chairman. it also looks like Khaw will the next PM after surpassing the 2 DPMs to become Acting PM.

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  • Python 5:

    >>>>THE WRITER, A NOBODY, HAS NO UNDERSTANDING OF PRCs –
    they are the OPPOSITE of average Sinkies.
    Their loyalty is money and get rich quick.<<

    oxygen, after all these years and GEs, and endless contract jobs and unemployment stints, I myself also think like the PRCs.

    I only think of MYSELF AND MONEY!!!

    Ppl like you, me and the 30% should do the same.

    one example I saw last time, the PRCs go do karang guni. they even resorted to removing those grey metal drain grills from the ground and re-sell them as scrap metal.

    all these threat of terrorism and that fake SGsecure thing you see around you.
    You are in a public place, you see any indication of a PLO-bomber or mumbai style attack, just quietly and quickly move away and fkkk off from the area.
    no need to give a fkkk about others: be it old ppl, pregnant women, kids, male, females, babies whatever.

    you may be a professional medic, or some kick ass SEAL or Yamam person.
    just look after yourself only.
    this country needs HUGE OVERDOSES OF TERRORIST BLOOD BATHS AND ECONOMIC MELTDOWNS.

    If I can earn money by supplying external organisations with information about SG security or MRT or SAF, I would do it gladly.

    Fkkk all the singaporeans 70%, the SAF, the SPF, the PAP.

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  • Honest Sperm:

    Python 5:
    >>>>THE WRITER, A NOBODY, HAS NO UNDERSTANDING OF PRCs –
    they are the OPPOSITE of average Sinkies.
    Their loyalty is money and get rich quick.<<

    oxygen, after all these years and GEs, and endless contract jobs and unemployment stints, I myself also think like the PRCs.

    I only think of MYSELF AND MONEY!!!

    Ppl like you, me and the 30% should do the same.

    one example I saw last time, the PRCs go do karang guni. they even resorted to removing those grey metal drain grills from the ground and re-sell them as scrap metal.

    all these threat of terrorism and that fake SGsecure thing you see around you.
    You are in a public place, you see any indication of a PLO-bomber or mumbai style attack, just quietly and quickly move away and fkkk off from the area.
    no need to give a fkkk about others: be it old ppl, pregnant women, kids, male, females, babies whatever.

    you may be a professional medic, or some kick ass SEAL or Yamam person.
    just look after yourself only.
    this country needs HUGE OVERDOSES OF TERRORIST BLOOD BATHS AND ECONOMIC MELTDOWNS.

    If I can earn money by supplying external organisations with information about SG security or MRT or SAF, I would do it gladly.

    Fkkk all the singaporeans 70%, the SAF, the SPF, the PAP.

    The system will incur much more losses eventually and collapse and rot is guaranteed over time , due to the missing people power serving as check on gubbermen.
    They are unchecked. Nothey can do whatever they want using OUR MONIES.

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  • patriot of Temesak:

    As I see it the Last 57 years having LIVE through and seen it all as an Ordinary NON-highfalutin Patriot…LKY the SOB is the CAUSE of all these losses of our Identity as a Singapore Patriot after all the sacrifices…

    The BEST if not some of the BEST Patriots and Nationalists were Crucified and Destroyed by the Bastard Evil SOB…

    Our Population started dropping through threats and Slaughter of the INNOCENTS unborn by LEEgal Abortion only a mind like Hitler can come up with…total MURDERED unborn base on latest count by Shitty Times announcing that last year’s ABORTION is lowest in many years and yet it was 20,000 plus…rule of THUMB put our lost Babies or replacement at 1,000,000(ONE MILLION) at last COUNT

    As the eyes of the new generation begin to remove the STAMPS from their eyes base on the election results allowing a number of OPPOSITIONS with NOT many balls after seeing for themselves how a Lonewolf name JB Jeyeretnam took the whole Evil system including the Dept. where a Blind Lady hold the Scales singlehandedly… and was TOTALLY DESTROYED by the Bastard who Arrogantly says that he will make JBJ crawl…Joshua, the Lion he was, showed him the middle finger and fought on…will the current OPPOSITIONS be like JBJ or will there ever be another JBJ???…NO WAY!!! until they remove that fear of losing their seat…

    Do I agree or disagree with A Nobodys’ analysis good, bad, or ugly??? Yes & No…

    At the end of the day, we have to “LIVE” with the “EVIL” we vote in. The CHOICE is yours!!!

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  • Change We Must:

    The only thing as true blue Singaporeans, we can stop and pressurize the PAP government from taking in more new citizens.They can do propaganda so can all Singaporeans. We must stand united as true blue Singaporeans!

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  • Dr. Chan:

    Pinoy nurses with Singapore Passport get their US green card faster than those carrying Philippine passport due to the quota allocation for India, China and Philippines.
    The recruiter at my hospital was able to apply for their green card easier.
    Those Phinoys, (even Indians and PRCs) are just making use of Singapore to get to the free world.

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  • MarBowling:

    Rather read the comments made by Oxygen, Rabble-rouser, Phyton 5, etc than wasting time on someone who calls himself or herself as A Nobody!

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