Retail Is Almost Dead, Thanks To Pap

Hallo readers, Happy New Year! One week before CNY, everywhere I go, it seems very quiet, even the $2 store not playing CNY music. The govt is very proud to announce economy is good and low unemployment. We already hitting 6M, how come Singapore does not seem to be more prosperous than in 1980s and 1990s. I remember weeks before CNY, the festive mood would have already started. The music at neighbourhood stalls would make you aware of the coming.

Our population has grown fast and furious and importing of third world foreigners never stop. We have grown so much in last 2 decades but why retail seems to be almost dead? The malls are often empty during week days and during weekends, the crowds are there but not many people will buy. We also have seen trend of shops opening up and shutting down, more and more shops are left vacant. I also notice many neighbour centres where vendors usually will rent to sell new year decorations and goodies, this year they are almost non-existent. PAP has been singing praises of GDP growth, their lousy polices and third world imports, so why retail is not reflecting their consensus?

Let us examine why. The forever increase of rental, every year, they will demand to raise rental irregardless of the economic situation. And this has forced many traditional and old vendors to give up their businesses since it makes little sense to work very hard and at the end of the month, almost all the revenue goes back to government. Those CNY stalls, you ever heard of the sky high rental, surely most vendors had experienced that in the past few years, probably decided not to participate.

The absolute greed of raising rental regularly is killing retail. The milk powder manufactured in Singapore is selling $38 in JB but $98 in Singapore, where did the $60 go? And those tourist numbers arriving in Singapore? How many are really tourists? We all know most are flying into Singapore on tourist visas but looking for jobs. If we have so many millions of tourists, why retail is not growing? Again, they probably found the prices in Singapore even more expensive than their home countries.

Lets come back to how the government is intending to help retail. Lower rental? No no… the trend of raising rental regularly is now a cult and must be followed diligently so that they will make more and more money. Instead, we see more scanners put up at immigration at cause way to deter locals from shopping overseas. Did you count the number of scanners at Singapore-JB causeway? Next is to be very strict on people buying luxuries or expensive products from overseas, we had once in 50 years case of a woman bought branded and caught at the airport. There was never such incident reported until recently, don’t you feel strange why Singapore is suddenly so strict? All these are messages to deter locals from shopping overseas. The last part, the biggest joke of all is the minister, the lady who told locals you don’t need big space to have sex told the public, the government is implementing “Ecommerce tax” to raise the level playing field of local retailers. You don’t find this reason absurd? You keep raising rental, retails forced to raise prices beyond affordability of locals, locals go outside Singapore to look for alternative, you make locals foot taxes just to ensure locals wont find it attractive to shop overseas?

So fellow consumers, you look at how they solve the problem they created. Instead of solving the problems, they attempt to force you to kow tow. Even with GST or Ecommerce tax, I believe many people will still shop overseas, the reason is Singapore is ridiculously expensive. My worry is when they still find you shopping overseas, will continue to raise GST or Ecommerce tax until you no longer find it attractive to shop overseas. And I think this would be the case once the new GST and Ecommerce set in.

Remember, you gave them your votes, so please enjoy their policies. LOL

Dugu QiuBai

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49 Responses to “Retail Is Almost Dead, Thanks To Pap”

  • low PPP, local economy dead:

    When the purchasing power parity in Singapore is so low, the local consumer economy will be dead.

    Migrant workers from Third World countries generally spend only on their minimum basic needs, saving the rest to bring home with them.

    Apart from low PPP, too many Singaporeans are either displaced or are under employed, or worried about their future and of being displaced.

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  • hal:

    I went to buy a tiny cup at Bugis provisio shops, I expect $0.50.

    First shop $1
    Second shop $1.5
    Thirst shop $2

    The last shop told me $4 for a slightly bigger.

    Something wrong with our Retail, they become crazy and greedy like PAP!

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  • Concerned Singaporean:

    Party Against People is bent on hurting Singaporean in livelihoods, pockets, jobs while making Singaporean male to serve and die for Pro Alien Party, elites, cronies, FTs …. so Singaporean are doomed to be slavery to them.

    That is why GST increases, rental, anything that can hurt Singaporean while they themselves dual incomes from being part time MPs, not representing citizens, attend parliament sessions, while enriching themselves.

    Remember the $1 company can get town council businesses … self-enriching like the 3rd world dictators …. one day, Singapore will explode ….

    Today, Singaporean are being duped, squeezed, used, exploited while Party Against People, elites, FTs can enjoy good lives on our expenses and we are supposed to die for them.

    Rise up Singaporean … vote more opposition parties or else, Singaporean are doomed forever.

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  • LIONS:

    Look at HDB FLATS where more than 85 pct of sgs live.

    Do you see those gay lighting like those good years before AH LONG’S FT POLICY times

    I tell you,you go CHINA TOWN on FIRST DAY OF LNY,you will see ELDERLY N POOR SGS COLLECTING CARDBOARDS.
    Meanwhile,LEE AH LONG N LIM SIA SUAY N THEIR GANG OF *ROBBERS* COUNTING THEIR MONEY?

    GOOD GAHMEN?
    KEE CHIU for them?
    Where is Chan Chun $in?
    Collecting BIG Ang Pow$?!

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  • patriot of Temesak:

    A 60s TV series says it all!!! “You ask for it”…what with a man with Crab crawling all over him and his Brains fried to a crisp with chemo…and leaving filthy ash in between the ears…

    The OWL @ Istana came and pa went… The OWL came again after INDUCTION into the OWL club @ Istana and soon he will join pa in the OWL’s nest to roam the Dark where they will NEVER see the Light!!!

    The Republic of Singapore will be Reclaimed by the Patriots and TRUE Singaporeans with the Spirit of the Founding Generation and our Island in The Sun will shine once again REMOVING the Evil Dark Cloud Hanging over our Island Paradise!!!

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  • oxygen:

    MY SOURCES OF INFORMATION ARE RELIABLE – yes, it is very quiet this year for retail. The festivity-only street vendors near MRT stations are very subdued – fewer stalls and lesser range of wares on offers. THEY ARE FAR MORE EXPENSIVE this year, an obvious sign of desperation to price on higher margin to catch the “captive” customers still willing and afford to spend. Fewer stalls means higher rental which is translating to higher prices. This has backfired, few buyers actually buy from these festivity-only temporary street vendors except food and drinks.

    Even in supermarkets, the new year goodies of treat is FAR MORE EXPENSIVE by 10% to 20% compared to the prices last year for most items. Bak Kwa (roast meats) is nearer to $60 per kilo whereas last year is closer to high 40-ishs. Now that is 20% higher.

    THERE IS NO NEW YEAR CELEBRATION FOR THE LOW-INCOME EARNERS AND DEFINITELY IT IS A NIGHTMARE TIME FOR THE UNEMPLOYED FAMILY.

    Those who are spending on CNY is SPENDING LESS too. They are seeing hard times around them, so spending is cautious – not knowing if their jobs will survive the next 12 months or INTEREST/MORTGAGE BILLS ESCALATING.

    The silent epidemic of poverty is hardly below the surface. And MPs are VERY VERY QUIET of helping the poor – too many to feed.

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  • l'ingenieur:

    “Remember, you gave them your votes, so please enjoy their policies.”

    Who is “you”?

    The Pioneer Generation
    The post-Pioneer Generation
    The naturalised Generation

    All these produced TFR < 2.1

    Is there any wonder they would vote against the younger generation that they did not produce?

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  • oxygen:

    THIS ARTICLE IS A GREAT READ – the hard truths on the ground level which PAPpys don’t want to read or know about and certainly don’t want peasants to be reminded of failed economy so close to the CNY festivity.

    Kee Chiu spoke of feedback from peasants that their comprehension of economy is very ÇONFUSING – PAPpys and Potty News Publishing reporting of roasting good times of GDP growth but seeing in their midst either falling income or rising unemployment. The realities on the ground cannot be reconciled to the ghosts of PAPpys GDP boasting statistics and the ghosts of hard times hitting their lives and their siblings.

    They should all have asked Kee Chiu or better still the “business consultant” often referred to as I-don’-t-know-what-to-say catchy fame on what is GDP growth and how these are related to rosy or gloomy economic times.

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  • Flabbergasted:

    Next will be coffee shops.

    With coffee-shops changing hands at mega millions, the only way the buyers can recover their investment is to charge obscene rentals.

    Its a matter of time before the cooked food prices will be beyond the reach of the ordinary salaried person.

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  • William C:

    Will they implement full restriction from buying milk powder from JB? They will say this is for your own good. Safety for your babies. 70% will kee chui and proclaim yalor.

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  • vgyijnuhj:

    This issue is not completely PAP to be blame, as everything will be replace and going onto online. The only fault will be bringing too much FT in to make us lose jobs and increase in cost of living, resulted that the citizens are being too poor for shopping and no mood to celebrate.

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  • oxygen:

    MY SOURCE ALSO TELLS ME that the expensive lines of abalone is well bought by PRC Ah Tiongs in NTUC-Fairprice outlets, the locals hardly look at these. So there is a real difference – PRCs big spenders is driving up the costs of festivity pricing for the rests.

    Amazingly, I am told even northern Indians queuing up to buy Bak Kwa that they don’t normally Q to buy too. A strange phenomena.Unlike PRC, northern Indians are NOT known to like consumption of pork or pork-related food products.

    Maybe Sinkies in TRE thread can confirm this is correct or not.

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  • N.Jungne:

    Thanks DuGu and a Happy New Year to you, but the market is bare. Sell expensive no one buys sell cheap “sip-poon” how? You look at me, and I look at you lor.

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  • poolicy:

    Time to suck POOlicy

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  • 陈大婶:

    獨孤求敗!好久不見了。

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  • Wait a minute, buddy.:

    The picture … Apparently is india store or little India store ? Nice try buddy at least put up a China town store picture.

    Looking at the crowd at Isetan NTUC or giant or co!d storage or miniso or daiso or ABC ,… Not true lah or half true. The only thing maybe factual about what you raise up is CNY first day NTUC surprisingly still open from 7am to 5pm. In the past rest day. Further in the past, rest 2 days.

    If writer is referring to the CNY snacks selling at China town or elsewhere, nobody interested to eat lah except maybe old timers. Even taiwanese and PRC I met also feedback the same thing. Why always the same old things, why not CNY Italian style ( pizza ) or CNY Japanese style ( sushi ) ?

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  • 6.9m looks like peanut powder:

    //The govt is very proud to announce economy is good and low unemployment. We already hitting 6M, how come Singapore does not seem to be more prosperous than in 1980s and 1990s//

    the garment is full of bs nowsadays. only good for the white idiots and their white plp gang as their benefits and bonus all come from taxpayers. if so good, somemore need to tok kok and give money on skills upgrading meh and need to fund out so all sorts of grants to businesses meh; and increase water price meh.

    yes, in the 80s & 90s, population need not go up to 4m to 5m, economy was good and we had plenty of physical space with good jobs. now so crowded at 5.5m (well one white idiot said : FTs create jobs for sinkies) with so many competing needs on space and jobs, and their white monkey idiot deliberately sounded out 10m to make 6.9m look like peanut powder. see how long the white idiots can continue to fool the many daft sinkies still in their dream state lor.

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  • PAP super greedy:

    PAP wants to suck and make money from everything and us.

    When they cant make money, they find ways to deter or block you. All these new taxes or laws are to block you from going to alternatives but forced to buy from the dying retail.

    Singaporeans are pathetic, gave overwhelming votes to PAP to continue to screw us big time.

    Song bo?

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    QUOTE: The absolute greed of raising rental regularly is killing retail. The milk powder manufactured in Singapore is selling $38 in JB but $98 in Singapore, where did the $60 go? {end}
    Ha-ha-ha-ha! S’poreans living in S’pore are so dumb compared to Ah Tiongs! They’re all willing to pay $98 for a tin of baby formula like paying $$$ for a piece of COE paper. Read how Ah Tiongs circumvent the system by raiding Australia for baby formula & exporting it home. Yet when I suggested to S’poreans going to Tanjong Pinang to buy Hae Bee (in bulk), some PAP IB idiot criticized my suggestion. Apparently some people in S’pore are too rich in their mental state of mind despite their pocket no money to spend!
    Link: https://www.google.com.au/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5377357/amp/Chemist-Warehouse-queues-baby-formula-delivery.html
    Even S’pore REITs & Property trusts have had better days re:their good run of high returns to shareholders ending & they are now facing new hurdles. REITs DPS growth to shareholders are levelling off while rent renewals were done at near zero rates ie. very little rent increase. In addition, there’s the prospect for higher interest rates going forward which would eat into distributable REITs earnings to shareholders. Like property & real estate capital prices, current REITs share price are unsustainable because the earning potential are likely to come off due to a ever softening economy & future higher consumption taxes.
    Look at the pathetic attempt by PAP govt to tax online sales just to support brick ‘n mortar retailing.
    Link: https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-02-11/singapore-seen-kicking-off-race-to-tax-38-billion-shopping-boom
    And the propaganda goes into overdrive for higher property prices becoming a mantra worth repeating to the greater fools for property purchases.
    Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/singapore-home-prices-may-rise-up-to-10-capitaland-ceo-says
    We’re looking at the end days for S’pore!

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  • Unresolved Grievances:

    The milk powder manufactured in Singapore is selling $38 in JB but $98 in Singapore, where did the $60 go? –> Maybe the spoon different size?

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  • C'est la vie:

    *****
    This CNY, the “puppy” will be biting each and every SGporean, all bloody year long, and reminding them, ……………………
    ***
    *****

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    QUOTE: The last part, the biggest joke of all is the minister, the lady who told locals you don’t need big space to have sex told the public, the government is implementing “Ecommerce tax” to raise the level playing field of local retailers. You don’t find this reason absurd? You keep raising rental, retails forced to raise prices beyond affordability of locals, locals go outside Singapore to look for alternative, you make locals foot taxes just to ensure locals wont find it attractive to shop overseas?{end}
    A fellow peer of mine (He quitted S’pore) had migrated to Australia in the aftermath of the 2001 long recession (S’pore only recovered in 2006 but not for everyone). He felt that S’pore’s future was no longer tenable for locals PMEs given the quick downward economic spiral & PAP’s economic management (no faith in their rhetoric).
    Today, he owns a landed property in Australia for no more than a resale 5-room HDB flat; w/4 bedrooms; 2 baths & a double garage with 2 cars (their combined price can’t even buy 40% of a COE). He tells me that retail prices in Australia are 30%-40% cheaper while eating out is ‘no difference’ when adjusted for food portions despite living in a high tax country. Most Aussie buy steaks from the butchers or supermarkets & throw them onto the barbie instead of eating out! “Life’s so good in Australia compared to living in S’pore,” he says! “Never regretted the decision to migrate to OZ! But now, it’s harder to do so than 1-2 decades ago! The Aussie immigration criteria has gone up since.”

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  • Bapak:

    A bottle of Eye Mo here cost $6.00. In Batam, same bottle cost only $2.65. Problem is those bought in SG use already cannot see. Better get from Batam, you can see better.

    hal:
    I went to buy a tiny cup at Bugis provisio shops, I expect $0.50.

    First shop $1
    Second shop $1.5
    Thirst shop $2

    The last shop told me $4 for a slightly bigger.

    Something wrong with our Retail, they become crazy and greedy like PAP!

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  • Sg is naked:

    The high cost also mainly due to the Property owners.
    Most of the richest in sg got rich with Properties . Property value is a bubble.

    They control the property prices.

    The rentals tied to property prices.

    Although retail is dying, the rentals have not gone down by the same proportion.

    But regulations are most likely to help save the retail sector from the online boom.

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  • Sg is naked:

    low PPP, local economy dead:
    When the purchasing power parity in Singapore is so low, the local consumer economy will be dead.

    Migrant workers from Third World countries generally spend only on their minimum basic needs, saving the rest to bring home with them.

    Apart from low PPP, too many Singaporeans are either displaced or are under employed, or worried about their future and of being displaced.

    Sg is an Artificially controlled economy.

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  • Bapak:

    May I ask, who is responsible for opening the FT floodgate? No wonder PAP still in power!

    vgyijnuhj:
    This issue is not completely PAP to be blame, as everything will be replace and going onto online. The only fault will be bringing too much FT in to make us lose jobs and increase in cost of living, resulted that the citizens are being too poor for shopping and no mood to celebrate.

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  • Where got so many buyers:

    Everywhere you will see same type of shops selling the same things like women clothes, cosmetics, handbags, common things, women underwear, smart phones and lots of electronics. Men no need to buy other things like their hobbies? Where got so many demand for women things (unless we are a mono-gender country) or people changing their TV sets or handphones everyday. Death of retail starts when local market is strictly determined by what the authorities want you to sell despite the forces of demand and supply. This creates a warped economy where the oversupply market will kill off businesses a slow painful death while some making money under supply businesses are not allowed to run at all…really a warped economy.

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  • Inevitable:

    No matter how cheap the rent is. Low to mid end retail will be dead. How to compare with warehouse rent!Even the cheap cities with cheap mall are hollowing out.

    Cant fight this.

    You will see all excess retail space being converted into businesses which cater to the real needs to people. Eg coffeesbops and food outlets. Supply more than demand and prices of rent will come down.

    Just watch and enjoy the cheaper food.

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  • if only Ministers understood:

    low PPP, local economy dead:
    When the purchasing power parity in Singapore is so low, the local consumer economy will be dead.

    Migrant workers from Third World countries generally spend only on their minimum basic needs, saving the rest to bring home with them.

    Apart from low PPP, too many Singaporeans are either displaced or are under employed, or worried about their future and of being displaced.

    Alas, if only those multimillion-dollar PAP Ministers understood it, even if nobody has specifically written about economics in the local Singapore context in the textbooks.

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  • Sperm hit the ceiling:

    It’s worldwide phenomenon.
    Retail is a stupid way to most types of businesses.

    It’s so stupid, that stupid is an understatement.

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  • Boring boring boring:

    Retail is dead. The people strolling around in shopping ctrs look like the walking dead too..expressionless from mayb fatique…but mostly i think the shops have nothing to attract customers these days. So boring. Everywhere the same old stuff. Only the foodcourts are packed cuz ppl got no choice. Everyone got to eat. But prices there tok are getting higher but no quality. Really a boring city as the survey rated.

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  • Inevitable:

    To all Ah Peks, low to mid end retail is going to be like the fax machine . Dinoursaured…like you.

    Stop complaining and look forward to more innovative use of mall space .

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  • talking about space:

    //The last part, the biggest joke of all is the minister, the lady who told locals you don’t need big space to have sex told the public,//

    for this she white idiot, she may be able to do it quite comfortably in a shithole which is 1m X 1m. talking about space, perhaps her anatomy (after sex) might allow her to hold an 18 or 55 yr old adult relative to a 9 mth old unborn.

    with white idiots like her, developers will be laughing at the silent approving “sanction” so that they can build ever smaller and smaller units but price high, higherer, higherest to maximize profit.

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  • buildings with centralized mal:

    //Supply more than demand and prices of rent will come down.//

    white idiots wait will import 10m & a portion will be rich investors / gunho entrepreneurs (the good invention REITs especially) which will bit up the price.

    do we see white idiots build more hawker & coffee shops (like traditional rentals collected by garment authorities) in new estate / new buildings with strict enforcement of tenants actually doing the business even for existing shophouse or kopi tiam units ??? – e.g not rerented to 2nd or 3rd party which will only add to costs. now it seems in new estates, it is tall buildings with centralized malls.

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  • no pity for the 70%:

    will piss on your sufferings if I can…you are destroying your children’s future unless all of you are eunuchs too…

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Sg is naked:
    The high cost also mainly due to the Property owners.
    Most of the richest in sg got rich with Properties . Property value is a bubble.

    They control the property prices.

    The rentals tied to property prices.

    Although retail is dying, the rentals have not gone down by the same proportion.

    But regulations are most likely to help save the retail sector from the online boom.

    @ Sg is naked:
    Mate, S’pore property is a greater fool game! Pearlbank Apartments just got En Bloc’ed & the buyers, Capitaland are going to construct over 800 units from the present 280 apartments there! And they’re going to sell it at SG$2.5 million for a new unit. When you look at the huge numbers; the assumed selling price; the fact the interest rates will be rising going forward; & the recent stockmarket turmoil – Capitaland’s business rationale isn’t based on strong logic & a rationale economic outlook.
    Link: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/pearl-bank-sold
    In S’pore, buyers of new properties bought beginning of 2006 (Casino effect) aren’t in the black! Virtually most of the prices paid for properties during 2006 were still underwater. Most of the En Bloc properties were older properties & that removes a portion of cheaper historical cost properties from the market. But all these En Bloc properties redevelopment would be launched around the same time leading to a massive oversupply around year 2023 to 2025 & the need to sell at a very high prices ie. @ psf basis for develooers to make a profit. But @ high psf prices, the locals are priced out leaving only foreigners as players. But Indonesians are still suffering from low commodity prices especially oil; the Chinese capital flight movement are nearly over (HNA raising capital by selling assets & Wanda selling their recent acquired property portfolio); & the recent stockmarket turmoil wiping billions from the wealthy & rich class.
    No one can control the property market prices in S’pore. That’s a fallacy! Debt on property will kill people faster if property values collapsed. Read your mortgage agreement, there is a top-up clause whenever your market valuation is lower than your mortgage sum. Banks don’t allow your property to go into negative equity. Wealth holdings using property is an illusion & a greater fool game. Better to hold cash during times of uncertainty!
    - cont’d -

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - Cont’d -
    Also when consumption trickles to a bare minimum due to softening economy, high retail prices & increased consumption tax, brick ‘n mortar retail outlets will die a slow & painful death. No amount of govt regulations can help save brick ‘n mortar retail from online competition. The online websites have global or regional presence; they can ignore the S’pore market but brick ‘n mortar retail can’t! The problem is that there will be a chain reaction like a domono effect: a softening economy; weakening consumption; retail shops cash flow problems; rent default; shop foreclosures; REITs DPS shrink badly; REITs share price collapsed, REITs shareholders wealth & capital destroyed, etc. And that doesn’t include the prospect of global rising interest rates!

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    Sg is naked: Sg is an Artificially controlled economy.

    @ Sg is naked:
    Next 5 to 10 years after China’s OBOR comes to fruition! – watch S’pore’s economy totally collapsed under it’s own weight & under PAP’s inept economic management! Globalization’s trade effects & global technological disruptions, there is no such thing as an Artificially controlled economy for S’pore & for the PAP! S’pore is already being slow cooked from the juices of PAP’s propaganda & their fake news media articles being sprouted by the pro-govt MSM. S’poreans being rendered dumb, mute, blind, & deaf by the incessant sounds coming from the PAP blocking out external inputs – oblivious to the threats of developments ongoing in other countries which will destroy S’pore.
    China’s OBOR will bypass S’pore’s trade channels & hub activities. Jurong Island will be killed off by Myanmar’s offshore island, oil & gas refinery & pipelines trunking towards China’s Yunnan Province. Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (part of OBOR initiative) will drive state-of-the-art investments around IndoChina region stopping well outside of S’pore’s sphere of influence. M’sia’s Malacca & Kuantan parallel port developments which would make shipping to S’pore a trade deviation route thus incurring extra shipping costs! And S’pore’s Maritime Industry & hub activities re: Bunkering, ship repair, ship-chandling & supplies industry will collapsed overnight.
    Go to Youtube, search & watch the Vietnamese wealth class driving Italian supercars & living in luxurious newly constructed houses & villas. S’poreans are already being passed-by by our [inferior] regional neighbours whose middle class are growing prosperous each day while S’pore’s are being decimated. *Sic* ..an Artificially controlled economy! – more like a failing economy distorted by loud propaganda & fake news!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Inevitable

    YOU RISKS EXISTENTIAL CRISIS SOON, if you happens to be asset-light, debt heavy and live your life like an endless orgy of extravagant consumption on credit – just like most of the millennial.

    Inevitable: To all Ah Peks, low to mid end retail is going to be like the fax machine . Dinoursaured…like you.

    Stop complaining and look forward to more innovative use of mall space .

    Look at what nonsense you have wrote – the immaturity of ignorance is obvious

    Inevitable: You will see all excess retail space being converted into businesses which cater to the real needs to people. Eg coffeesbops and food outlets. Supply more than demand and prices of rent will come down. Just watch and enjoy cheaper food

    If cheaper food comes about from cheaper rent – it will only come in a deep recession. Will you still have a job then to pay and enjoy cheaper food then?

    Bet you are clueless of what this means of actual happening on Wall Street last night

    - bond yields rallied yet again
    - US Dollar tumbling
    - spot gold is strongly up
    - US equities also rally in contradiction of the three observations above.

    What does this signals of the state of global economy evolving and what will happen to your mortgage (if you can afford to be in one in the first place with parental help in the first place) and your employment security forward?

    If you did, write your explanation back – I DOUBT YOU CAN IN YOUR IGNORANCE EXCEEDING YOUR ARROGANCE.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    ME THINKS THIS GONNA BE A WHITE ELEPHANT – it is the only en bloc undertaking by Capitaland for a couple of reasons.

    First it is 800-units re-development – to big in units term for a single project to find buyers to absorb all up unless the global economy is runaway booming – which means inflationary-aligned interest rate escalation impacting negatively on affordability. Asking buyers to cough up $2.5 million for small living space on the fringe of CDB is a BIG ASK when cheaper prices on Sentosa Cove is less density pack living is available – forget parking space and traffic congestion – the rich don’t want congested living and transportation grid-lock.

    Rabble-rouser: Mate, S’pore property is a greater fool game! Pearlbank Apartments just got En Bloc’ed & the buyers, Capitaland are going to construct over 800 units from the present 280 apartments there! And they’re going to sell it at SG$2.5 million for a new unit. When you look at the huge numbers; the assumed selling price; the fact the interest rates will be rising going forward; & the recent stockmarket turmoil – Capitaland’s business rationale isn’t based on strong logic & a rationale economic outlook.

    So like you said, it is a greater fools game of en bloc re-development. Lim Ming Yan, Capitaland CEO said this himself

    Lim Ming Yan, Capitaland CEO: We continue to look for opportunities in Singapore but we feel the kind of bidding, the price, is too aggressive for us,” Lim said. “We bid in a very disciplined manner…..A 5-to-10 percent increase is possible this year barring any unforeseen major volatility in the capital markets

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/singapore-home-prices-may-rise-up-to-10-capitaland-ceo-says

    The pace of bidding is outrageously out of line with fundamental. Yet LMY is only forecasting a 5% to 10% increase in price possibility of immediate outlook. And his top forecasting range is double at top to lowest base of 5% rise and that is conditional on no “unforeseen major volatility in the capital market”. Crazy or not?

    The major capital markets from equities to bonds to currency is in tremors now. Gold & equities – negatively correlated – is up. Bond yield and US dollar move in opposite direction when it is positively correlated most of the time.

    And the world’s biggest hedge fund manager – Ray Dalio is forecasting a recession risk.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/ray-dalio-risks-of-a-recession-are-rising.html

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  • pricier or pricierest:

    //Stop complaining and look forward to more innovative use of mall space .//

    haha. more and more eateries lar but more pricier or pricierest than the good old kopi tiam concept. innovative (in sinkie land context) means more expensive lar. got real innovation meh just becos a sticker saying innovation is slapped on it.

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  • remaining driver:

    //But all these En Bloc properties redevelopment would be launched around the same time leading to a massive oversupply around year 2023 to 2025 & the need to sell at a very high prices//

    what can the white idiots do now ? it seems that real estate is their last ace (remaining driver) card b4 the sardine can ‘explodes’ lar. by then, many white idiots who are responsible for their policy decisions will leave the scene for daft sinkies to scratch their itchy heads lar. every new building is getting taller (packing 10m ?) and hence more and more infrastructures (underground) has to be built & services installed to accommodate increasing needs and stress.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble rouser

    ANOTHER SPOT ON GREAT POST COMMENT – Guess what? Goldman Sachs HAS TURNED bearish.

    Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein: ‘The odds of a bad outcome have gone up’

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-we-be-worried-that-lloyd-blankfein-hasnt-felt-this-good-since-2006-2018-02-14

    Less than 3 weeks ago, Goldman Sachs along with ALL major US banks were so confidently positive of “synchronised global recovery” in DAVOS. Now he is speaking of commencement of the bank’s contingency plan in the face of rising odd of bad outcome escalating.

    Rabble-rouser: Also when consumption trickles to a bare minimum due to softening economy, high retail prices & increased consumption tax, brick ‘n mortar retail outlets will die a slow & painful death. No amount of govt regulations can help save brick ‘n mortar retail from online competition. The online websites have global or regional presence; they can ignore the S’pore market but brick ‘n mortar retail can’t! The problem is that there will be a chain reaction like a domono effect: a softening economy; weakening consumption; retail shops cash flow problems; rent default; shop foreclosures; REITs DPS shrink badly; REITs share price collapsed, REITs shareholders wealth & capital destroyed, etc. And that doesn’t include the prospect of global rising interest rates!

    And his about turn came after Ray Dalio, largest hedge fund manager who suddenly turned strongly bearish in DAVOS after initially so bullish of outlook forecast.

    Now less than 3 weeks later, Ray Dalio is worried that Fed’s delayed response to underlying inflation threat might turned the apple cart into a nasty recession.

    Ray Dalio: ‘Risks of a recession’ are rising.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/ray-dalio-risks-of-a-recession-are-rising.html

    Top global banks and hedge fund managers are not so arrogant of positive outlook anymore except for one observation – RISING INTEREST RATE and this venomous s*ake might kill off the recovery so soon of first light of dawn. The last observation is grim of DESTROYING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE in the economy turnaround forward in the forseeable future.

    The REITs/listed property developers could be calling for capital raising to shore up their balance sheet and share the risks of a impending downturn in the property cycle far steeper than they have seen in the last 10 years – exactly the kind of contingency plan which Goldman Sachs’s Llyod Blankfein warned about last night in NY.

    EN BLOC DEVELOPERS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY VIEWS OF TOP INVESTMENT BANKERS & HEDGE FUND MANAGER.

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  • Retail problem:

    Better to cut loss than to go on for many retail shops…who are bleeding every month.
    No future unless drastic change to the industries…
    Costs too high and revenues too low…

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    @ oxygen:
    The recent PAP economic remake was just a copy-&-paste of:
    * Monaco’s wealth management model to the well-heeled (eg. Sentosa Cove; F1 race; casinos, etc);
    * Ireland’s MNC corporate mail box address business model for MNC to store their globalization profits & wealth away from the taxman; &
    * Dubai’s foreign legion workforce business model providing wealth services; offshore business mailbox address & intermediary financing services – a short cut mechanism to developing own human resources through using foreign mercenaries instead.
    But Ireland & Dubai had suffered financial crisis relating to property asset bubbles for the former & overambitious land development for the latter. The problem with Ireland & Dubai is that there is hardly any investment avenues for the excess capital influx to invest into except into real estate & land development. Only Monaco had maintained their sanity because their land resources are limited & hardly any property change hands because Monaco’s wealthy property owners rarely sell keeping it within the family. But Monaco had hundreds of years of wealth management experience in their history whereas Ireland & Dubai were Johnny-come-lately into the business!
    Excessive property speculation (Ireland’s) & overambitious land development (Dubai’s) were examples of poor capital reallocation of an influx of ‘parked’ liquidity into their financial system. The political mechanisms (re: politicians & economic leaders) were unable to direct capital investment into sustainable businesses (long-term & unquantifiable in terms of benefit) but into property investments which enriched the pockets quicker & made people wealthier (on paper). In addition, the benefits are immediately captured inside the GDP metrics – land development (Investment under GDP); property sales (Consumption); spin-off activities (Construction, financing, mortgage, etc). And govt captured revenues from property transaction re: stamp duty; development fees; taxes on goods & services relating to land, etc.
    But the biggest problem with land is that it is UNPRODUCTIVE unless it is used for Primary purposes eg. Agriculture; animal husbanding ie cattle ranching or resource extraction. And when land becomes expensive & high value, it causes people & corporations to re-focus their economic activities & all their energies onto property speculation (Flipping, booking multiple new launches); property hoarding (En Bloc/landbanking/multiple properties holdings, REITs) & overcommitment on property holdings (booking new launches/BTO flats/Executive Condo; unsustainable mortgage commitment, REITs investments, etc). And that is that we’re seeing in S’pore today! The whole S’pore…

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  • Rabble-rouser:

    - cont’d -
    The whole S’pore Economy configured on holding property as wealth creation (using debt *sic*) & on brick ‘n mortar activities (rent-seeking, high capital investments) which drives up rents, encourage profiteering & price gouging, etc. S’pore’s economy is highly dysfunctional & there are a lot of imbalances because of this. Why? Because the govt owns 70% of land in S’pore & is the major landbanker for housing & commercial land. That why S’pore can’t innovate nor create new enterprises! Making money from land ventures is so much more easier & highly profitable – why innovate? Can even sell a theoretical piece of paper (COE) for tens of thousands of $$$ – aren’t they already creative enough? Ha-ha-ha-ha!

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  • oxygen:

    @ Rabble-rouser

    THANK YOU FOR TWO BRILLIANT CONNECTED POSTS ABOVE – and yes, land & brick-n-mortar economy is debt-laden masquerading as wealth fabrication. It has no enduring sustainable value unless the economy, particularly global economy, is very strong and even when it is so, it is in cycle of boom-bust rotation.

    In the up-cycle, it is massive leveraging of debt, but unless income from land/infrastructural spending adds sufficiently (and seldom is AFTER INTEREST FINANCING COSTS) to reward its capital suppliers (as no one or group of lenders will exclusive invest in such land/brick-n-mortar asset bubble speculation adventure) AND ALSO REPAY OFF THE BORROWINGS – it must naturally follow the next cycle will and must be the DOWN-CYCLE of deleveraging (paying off debt like REITS in conditions of poorer return and adversity of global economic conditions).

    We have 30 years of bull-market in bonds of falling interest rate (peaked in 2016 when we saw negative interest rate in EU, Japan & Scandinavia) – the cheap financing costs funding the joy ride of low-return (after interest charges) up cycle. In simple analogy it is investment in marginal economic adventures riding the tide of falling financing costs of heavy capital intensive play.

    Now the tide has turned, made worst by debt levels unprecedented in economic history -even worst than 2008 GFC. A small rise in interest rate – as pointed out by Ray Dalio has huge magnified negative impact on investment return and economy.

    Capital-intensive debt laden land/brick-n-mortar economy in rising interest rate environment has two likely crushing headwinds coming

    - inflation , mirrored in rising bond yields, preface a recession or

    - rising interest rate, undercut low-return investment in debt-laden property/brick-n-mortar, SCREWING UP such economy, like LEE-jiapore.

    WE ARE TRAPPED, like you put it brilliantly of your insightful posts. Thank you very much for sharing, mate.

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  • Not the Full Picture:

    Retail is also dead almost everywhere else on this planet. So all that is also the PAP’s fault?

    This post is just nonsense.

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  • oxygen:

    @ Not the Full Picture

    RETAIL DEAD in festivity is very troubling. You won’t find that in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong or Chinatowns in world major cities.

    Not the Full Picture: Retail is also dead almost everywhere else on this planet. So all that is also the PAP’s fault?

    This post is just nonsense.

    It is like the en bloc craze in media beat up by transactions falls by 50% in January in the property market.

    Andy Mukherjee in Bloomnerg : Still, a little caution is warranted. Singapore’s housing rebound appears more robust than it is. The number of private apartments sold by developers in January was only 522, or half of the past decade’s monthly average.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-15/making-singapore-homes-great-again-for-banks-isn-t-easy

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